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Luke Grimm
Luke Grimm

#11Luke Grimm

WR·Kansas·2024

Luke Grimm is a Slot Specialist WR for Kansas. Luke's 2024 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 68 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

  • Usage share (volume)0.47
    Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
  • EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
    Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
  • Total EPA (value)0.45
    Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Luke Grimm's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Rushing
135 Rush yards1 Rush TD11 Carries12.3 Yards/carry
Receiving
51 Receptions690 Rec yards6 Rec TD13.5 Yards/rec
Returns
3 Punt returns29 PR yards0 PR TD

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs WR peers

  • Efficiency100
  • Volume26
  • Explosiveness44
  • Consistency86
  • Pass-Down30
Player type
Slot Specialist WR

The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.

3rd-down converterRoute technicianHigh passing-down share
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite
Game-to-game consistency86th %ile · above avg
Key findings
  • ▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
  • ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
  • ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
  • ▸10 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
  • ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.28 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
  • ▸Peak game: 1.96 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Lindenwood.

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗
Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

+1.960−1.96Wk 1 vs Lindenwood: +1.96 EPA/play1Wk 2 vs Illinois: +0.85 EPA/play2Wk 3 vs UNLV: +0.30 EPA/play3Wk 4 vs West Virginia: +1.33 EPA/play4Wk 5 vs TCU: +1.67 EPA/play5Wk 6 vs Arizona State: +1.27 EPA/play6Wk 8 vs Houston: +1.38 EPA/play8Wk 9 vs Kansas State: +1.15 EPA/play9Wk 11 vs Iowa State: +0.14 EPA/play11Wk 12 vs BYU: +1.09 EPA/play12Wk 13 vs Colorado: +0.71 EPA/play13Wk 14 vs Baylor: +1.23 EPA/play14
EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+RecRec YdsAvgRec TDLongEPA/play
1vsLindenwoodW48-3—611118.51581.96
2@IllinoisL17-239.69404.41100.85
3vsUNLVL20-239.3362.00100.30
4@West VirginiaL28-322.167512.51221.33
5vsTCUL27-3810.868514.21331.67
6@Arizona StateL31-359.433712.30211.27
8vsHoustonW42-14-8.2199.0091.38
9@Kansas StateL27-2914.146616.51421.15
11vsIowa StateW45-3610.327638.01700.14
12@BYUW17-1315.347719.30271.09
13vsColoradoW37-218.14358.80130.71
14@BaylorL17-458.437324.30481.23

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
9.1%
Passing plays
19.4%
Rushing plays
2.2%
Standard downs
7.8%
Passing downs
12.4%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
1.10
Passing downs
0.98
Pass / Rush EPA
1.11 / 0.72

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.