Larry McCammon III

RB·Florida Atlantic·2023

Larry McCammon III is a Featured Back for Florida Atlantic. Larry's 2023 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 174 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Larry McCammon III's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Rushing

681 Rush yards5 Rush TD149 Carries4.6 Yards/carry

Receiving

25 Receptions205 Rec yards0 Rec TD8.2 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs RB peers

Efficiency0
Volume73
Explosiveness32
Consistency0
Receiving53

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency0th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.23 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.56 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Monmouth.

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsMonmouth	W42-20	—	13	125	9.6	1	4	59	0	0.56
2	vsOhio	L10-17	-1.6	7	23	3.3	0	3	16	0	-0.17
4	@Illinois	L17-23	-2.5	17	89	5.2	0	2	19	0	0.23
6	vsTulsa	W20-17	-13.7	26	130	5.0	2	4	15	0	0.11
7	@South Florida	W56-14	-6.6	18	75	4.2	1	1	14	0	-0.10
8	vsUTSA	L10-36	5.4	15	30	2.0	0	4	33	0	0.08
9	@Charlotte	W38-16	-21.4	15	67	4.5	1	2	19	0	0.08
10	@UAB	L42-45	-14.7	13	68	5.2	0	1	6	0	-0.11
11	vsEast Carolina	L7-22	-12.8	12	36	3.0	0	3	20	0	-0.07
12	vsTulane	L8-24	2.8	10	32	3.2	0	1	4	0	-0.18
13	@Rice	L21-24	-10.2	3	6	2.0	0	—	—	—	-0.23

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

25.7%

Passing plays

7.5%

Rushing plays

49.0%

Standard downs

29.9%

Passing downs

17.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.01
Passing downs: 0.38
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.33 / 0.05

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).