Skip to content
Landon Ellis
Landon Ellis

#11Landon Ellis

WR·James Madison·2025

Landon Ellis is a Slot Specialist WR for James Madison. Landon's 2025 season produced 51.0 total EPA across 44 plays.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

  • Usage share (volume)0.47
    Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
  • EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
    Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
  • Total EPA (value)0.45
    Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Landon Ellis's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving
36 Receptions624 Rec yards5 Rec TD17.3 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

  • Efficiency100
  • Volume16
  • Explosiveness69
  • Consistency86
  • Pass-Down100
Player type
Slot Specialist WR

The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.

3rd-down converterRoute technicianHigh passing-down share
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite
Game-to-game consistency86th %ile · above avg
Key findings
  • ▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
  • ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
  • ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
  • ▸8 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
  • ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
  • ▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.38 from the first to second half of the season.
  • ▸Peak game: 1.57 EPA/play in Wk 11 vs Marshall (SP+ -5).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗
Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

+1.570−1.57Wk 1 vs Weber State: +1.44 EPA/play1Wk 2 vs Louisville: +0.95 EPA/play2Wk 4 vs Liberty: +0.37 EPA/play4Wk 5 vs Georgia Southern: +0.64 EPA/play5Wk 6 vs Georgia State: +0.14 EPA/play6Wk 7 vs Louisiana: +1.52 EPA/play7Wk 8 vs Old Dominion: +1.12 EPA/play8Wk 10 vs Texas State: +0.86 EPA/play10Wk 11 vs Marshall: +1.57 EPA/play11Wk 12 vs App State: +1.36 EPA/play12
EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+RecRec YdsAvgRec TDLongEPA/play
1vsWeber StateW45-10—22010.01141.44
2@LouisvilleL14-2812.435518.30260.95
4@LibertyW31-13-9.034013.31210.37
5vsGeorgia SouthernW35-10-9.424020.00210.64
6@Georgia StateW14-7-24.53289.30130.14
7vsLouisianaW24-14-10.1612020.03621.52
8vsOld DominionW63-275.969716.20361.12
10@Texas StateW52-202.323718.50260.86
11@MarshallW35-23-4.534916.30201.57
12vsApp StateW58-10-11.424623.00301.36
15vsTroyW31-14-4.8199.009—
20@OregonL34-5125.938327.7050—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
5.6%
Passing plays
13.8%
Rushing plays
0.0%
Standard downs
4.5%
Passing downs
8.1%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
0.79
Passing downs
1.60
Pass / Rush EPA
1.16 / —

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.