#1KJ Jefferson

QB·Arkansas·2022 20218.0 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

KJ Jefferson is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Arkansas. KJ's 2021 season ranks in the 57th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 403 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So KJ Jefferson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2021 Production

Passing

198/294 Comp/Att2676 Pass yards21 Pass TD4 INT67.3% Comp %

Rushing

664 Rush yards6 Rush TD146 Carries4.5 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2021 · vs QB peers

Efficiency57
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency77
Clutch52

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)57th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency77th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Peak game: 0.96 EPA/play in Wk 8 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff.

NIL Market Tier· 2021

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsRice	W38-17	-22.9	12/21	128	1	1	50.3	89	2	0.09
2	vsTexas	W40-21	8.5	14/19	138	0	1	78.0	73	0	0.30
3	vsGeorgia Southern	W45-10	-15.3	13/23	366	3	0	70.4	18	0	0.88
4	vsTexas A&M	W20-10	21.1	7/15	212	2	0	92.6	50	0	0.74
5	@Georgia	L0-37	32.0	8/13	65	0	0	59.4	5	0	0.02
6	@Ole Miss	L51-52	14.8	25/35	326	3	1	87.5	85	3	0.46
7	vsAuburn	L23-38	11.0	21/35	228	2	0	70.6	66	0	0.14
8	vsArkansas-Pine Bluff	W45-3	—	10/17	194	4	0	62.2	33	0	0.96
10	vsMississippi State	W31-28	10.5	19/23	191	1	0	82.8	14	0	0.43
11	@LSU	W16-13	4.1	18/25	142	1	0	35.3	41	0	0.06
12	@Alabama	L35-42	26.0	22/30	326	3	0	93.7	22	0	0.57
13	vsMissouri	W34-17	3.1	15/19	262	1	0	90.8	58	0	0.72
1	vsPenn State	W24-10	14.3	14/19	98	0	1	72.2	110	1	0.09

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

48.8%

Passing plays

92.5%

Rushing plays

21.3%

Standard downs

41.9%

Passing downs

64.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.39
Passing downs: 0.44
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.41 / 0.40

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2021 — 2022 · 23 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2021	Arkansas	8.0	0.556	—	225.9
2022	Arkansas	10.0	0.563	+0.01	247.0

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.