#5Kenyon Clay

RB·Southern Miss·2024

Kenyon Clay is a Explosive Back for Southern Miss. Kenyon's 2024 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 86 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Kenyon Clay's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Rushing

387 Rush yards7 Rush TD84 Carries4.6 Yards/carry

Receiving

21 Receptions225 Rec yards1 Rec TD10.7 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs RB peers

Efficiency0
Volume41
Explosiveness32
Consistency62
Receiving69

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency62th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.31 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.87 EPA/play in Wk 9 vs James Madison (SP+ 8).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@Kentucky	L0-31	5.5	1	7	7.0	0	—	—	—	0.70
2	vsSE Louisiana	W35-10	—	4	75	18.8	1	1	-4	0	0.73
3	vsSouth Florida	L24-49	-2.3	2	0	0.0	0	2	42	1	0.67
4	@Jacksonville State	L7-44	-1.0	10	49	4.9	0	—	—	—	-0.18
6	vsLouisiana	L13-23	4.8	5	10	2.0	2	1	31	0	0.84
7	@UL Monroe	L21-38	-16.7	8	47	5.9	1	1	16	0	0.10
8	vsArkansas State	L28-44	-9.9	7	24	3.4	1	1	17	0	0.10
9	@James Madison	L15-32	7.5	8	69	8.6	1	2	25	0	0.87
11	vsMarshall	L3-37	3.1	6	31	5.2	0	—	—	—	0.19
12	@Texas State	L3-58	5.4	10	8	0.8	0	5	43	0	-0.23
13	vsSouth Alabama	L14-35	2.8	11	48	4.4	0	5	39	0	0.26
14	@Troy	L20-52	-6.6	12	19	1.6	1	3	16	0	-0.19

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

14.3%

Passing plays

5.4%

Rushing plays

23.0%

Standard downs

15.8%

Passing downs

11.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.23
Passing downs: 0.19
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.66 / 0.11

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).