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Kenny Pickett
Kenny Pickett

#8Kenny Pickett

QB·Pittsburgh·202120202.2 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Kenny Pickett is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Pittsburgh. Kenny's 2020 season ranks in the 3th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 404 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

  • Usage share (volume)0.46
    Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
  • EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
    Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
  • Total EPA (value)0.51
    Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Kenny Pickett's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2020 Production

Passing
204/333 Comp/Att2408 Pass yards13 Pass TD9 INT61.3% Comp %
Rushing
162 Rush yards8 Rush TD81 Carries2.0 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2020 · vs QB peers

  • Efficiency3
  • Volume100
  • Dual-Threat59
  • Consistency74
  • Clutch86
Player type
Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)3th %ile · below avg
Game-to-game consistency74th %ile · average
Key findings
  • ▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
  • ▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
  • ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
  • ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
  • ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.28 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
  • ▸Peak game: 0.98 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Austin Peay.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

+0.980−0.98Wk 2 vs Austin Peay: +0.98 EPA/play2Wk 3 vs Syracuse: +0.20 EPA/play3Wk 4 vs Louisville: +0.17 EPA/play4Wk 5 vs NC State: +0.52 EPA/play5Wk 6 vs Boston College: +0.24 EPA/play6Wk 10 vs Florida State: +0.39 EPA/play10Wk 12 vs Virginia Tech: +0.33 EPA/play12Wk 13 vs Clemson: -0.00 EPA/play13Wk 15 vs Georgia Tech: +0.03 EPA/play15
EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+C/ATTPass YdsPass TDINTQBRRush YdsRush TDEPA/play
2vsAustin PeayW55-0—14/2027710—2310.98
3vsSyracuseW21-10-9.825/3621521—-810.20
4vsLouisvilleW23-206.523/3822021—2800.17
5vsNC StateL29-300.022/3941110—4020.52
6@Boston CollegeL30-310.925/4826621—3610.24
10@Florida StateW41-17-4.921/2721000—1310.39
12vsVirginia TechW47-1413.735/5240421—1510.33
13@ClemsonL17-5226.122/3920924—-140-0.00
15@Georgia TechW34-20-1.017/341961147.82910.03

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
60.3%
Passing plays
96.3%
Rushing plays
21.5%
Standard downs
54.2%
Passing downs
72.8%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
0.20
Passing downs
0.43
Pass / Rush EPA
0.31 / 0.20

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg
+1.340−0.122021
EPA per play · 2020 — 2021 · 22 games
SeasonTeamLine valueTotal EPA
2020Pittsburgh
2.2
141.4
2021Pittsburgh
7.4
271.0

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.