#8Kaelon Black

RB·James Madison·2025 2023

Kaelon Black is a Committee Back for James Madison. Kaelon's 2023 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 141 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Kaelon Black's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Rushing

637 Rush yards1 Rush TD142 Carries4.5 Yards/carry

Receiving

25 Receptions238 Rec yards4 Rec TD9.5 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs RB peers

Efficiency0
Volume53
Explosiveness30
Consistency6
Receiving61

Player type

Committee Back

Part of a rotation — contributes in a complementary role and keeps the featured back fresh.

Rotational roleSituational use

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency6th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.19 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.45 EPA/play in Wk 7 vs Georgia Southern (SP+ -5).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsBucknell	W38-3	—	12	125	10.4	0	—	—	—	0.37
2	@Virginia	W36-35	-10.8	12	25	2.1	0	3	18	1	0.01
3	@Troy	W16-14	9.8	13	78	6.0	0	4	42	0	0.24
4	@Utah State	W45-38	-10.9	17	76	4.5	0	5	43	0	0.11
5	vsSouth Alabama	W31-23	5.1	19	61	3.2	0	1	3	0	-0.18
7	vsGeorgia Southern	W41-13	-5.2	11	45	4.1	1	3	38	2	0.45
8	@Marshall	W20-9	-9.0	16	33	2.1	0	1	5	0	—
9	vsOld Dominion	W30-27	-10.1	10	43	4.3	0	2	20	0	0.04
10	@Georgia State	W42-14	-6.8	4	7	1.8	0	1	30	0	0.02
11	vsUConn	W44-6	-15.6	4	38	9.5	0	1	5	0	0.30
12	vsApp State	L23-26	3.8	6	28	4.7	0	—	—	—	-0.48
13	@Coastal Carolina	W56-14	-1.2	7	35	5.0	0	—	—	—	0.00
20	vsAir Force	L21-31	5.9	11	43	3.9	0	4	34	1	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

18.6%

Passing plays

6.2%

Rushing plays

32.1%

Standard downs

18.8%

Passing downs

18.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.04
Passing downs: 0.39
Pass / Rush EPA: 1.01 / -0.05

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2025 · 16 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.