#5Justin Lynch

WR·Northern Illinois·2025 2022 2021

Justin Lynch is a 2-year Versatile WR for Northern Illinois.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Justin Lynch's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

Recruiting Profile· Class of 2021

★★★★★

3-Star · Developmental

Stars: ★★★★★
247 composite: 0.8389
National rank: #1,491
High school: Mount Carmel
Hometown: Chicago, IL

Recruiting data from CFBD/247Sports composite. Sourced from the player's signing-class team — transfers show original school's class.

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume7
Explosiveness100
Consistency50
Pass-Down50

Player type

Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸Peak game: 1.56 EPA/play in Wk 11 vs Toledo (SP+ 6).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Quadree Henderson	Pittsburgh	2016	63	0.530	1.6	33.4
DeAndre Hughes	Air Force	2021	60	0.470	1.3	28.2
Savion Williams	TCU	2024	56	0.450	1.1	25.2
Bert Emanuel Jr.	Central Michigan	2022	53	0.460	1.6	24.4
Keytaon Thompson	Mississippi State	2017	70	0.460	1.2	32.2

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · EPA per play, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	EPA/play	Pass	Rush
1	vsHoly Cross	W19-17	—	—	—	—
11	@Toledo	L3-42	6.0	1.56	—	1.56
12	@Massachusetts	W45-3	-36.6	0.38	—	0.38

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

2.3%

Passing plays

0.0%

Rushing plays

3.4%

Standard downs

3.4%

Passing downs

0.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.78
Passing downs: —
Pass / Rush EPA: — / 0.78

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2021 — 2022 · 20 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2021	Temple	0.3	0.240	—	15.1
2022	Northern Illinois	0.7	0.230	-0.01	15.2

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.