#15Justice Hansen

QB·Arkansas State·20175.2 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Justice Hansen is a Dual-Threat QB for Arkansas State. Justice's 2017 season ranks in the 3th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 590 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Justice Hansen's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2017 Production

Passing

305/487 Comp/Att3967 Pass yards37 Pass TD16 INT62.6% Comp %

Rushing

423 Rush yards7 Rush TD133 Carries3.2 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2017 · vs QB peers

Efficiency3
Volume100
Dual-Threat78
Consistency74
Clutch61

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)3th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency74th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.17 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.97 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs UL Monroe (SP+ -13).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Nebraska	L36-43	2.5	46/68	415	3	2	61.8	-3	0	0.25
3	vsArkansas-Pine Bluff	W48-3	—	24/31	336	5	0	91.0	4	0	0.44
4	@SMU	L21-44	-2.9	16/26	234	2	0	82.2	36	0	0.23
6	@Georgia Southern	W43-25	-15.8	12/26	316	4	4	55.0	-6	0	0.46
7	vsCoastal Carolina	W51-17	—	24/37	286	5	0	91.0	68	0	0.59
8	vsLouisiana	W47-3	-15.8	23/37	275	2	0	87.3	121	1	0.41
9	@New Mexico State	W37-21	-9.4	25/40	297	4	1	49.9	39	0	0.22
11	@South Alabama	L19-24	-12.0	27/44	285	2	4	23.7	37	0	0.05
12	vsTexas State	W30-12	-23.5	20/33	229	1	0	51.3	10	2	-0.01
13	@UL Monroe	W67-50	-12.9	26/38	520	4	1	97.6	30	2	0.97
14	vsTroy	L25-32	1.6	31/50	437	2	3	46.4	52	1	0.04
1	vsMiddle Tennessee	L30-35	-4.9	31/57	337	3	1	43.7	35	1	0.06

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

62.4%

Passing plays

95.4%

Rushing plays

23.4%

Standard downs

58.5%

Passing downs

71.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.25
Passing downs: 0.35
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.28 / 0.29

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2017 · 12 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.