Jordan Simmons

RB·Georgia State·2025

Jordan Simmons is a Pass-Catching Back for Georgia State. Jordan's 2025 season ranks in the 38th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 127 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jordan Simmons's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Rushing

543 Rush yards2 Rush TD97 Carries5.6 Yards/carry

Receiving

28 Receptions192 Rec yards1 Rec TD6.9 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers

Efficiency38
Volume50
Explosiveness52
Consistency36
Receiving92

Player type

Pass-Catching Back

Third-down weapon out of the backfield. Routes, hands, and separation in coverage define this role as much as rushing.

3rd-down backReceiving threatPass protection

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)38th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency36th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.17 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.39 EPA/play in Wk 12 vs Marshall (SP+ -5).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@Ole Miss	L7-63	24.0	—	—	—	—	1	-2	0	-0.15
3	vsMurray State	W37-21	—	2	10	5.0	0	—	—	—	0.21
4	@Vanderbilt	L21-70	20.3	4	21	5.3	0	1	4	1	0.39
6	vsJames Madison	L7-14	12.3	3	2	0.7	0	3	28	0	0.15
7	vsApp State	L20-41	-11.4	2	7	3.5	0	1	1	0	-0.51
8	@Georgia Southern	L24-41	-9.4	2	7	3.5	0	3	20	0	0.26
9	vsSouth Alabama	L31-38	-12.7	11	78	7.1	0	3	11	0	0.21
11	@Coastal Carolina	L27-40	-15.1	20	99	5.0	1	5	25	0	0.14
12	vsMarshall	L18-30	-4.5	19	164	8.6	1	6	64	0	0.39
13	@Troy	L19-31	-4.8	17	67	3.9	0	4	39	0	0.18
14	@Old Dominion	L10-27	5.9	17	88	5.2	0	1	2	0	0.00

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

17.5%

Passing plays

8.9%

Rushing plays

29.9%

Standard downs

20.6%

Passing downs

11.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.15
Passing downs: 0.37
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.17 / 0.21

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).