#2Jordan Pachot

QB·Missouri State·2023

Jordan Pachot is a Dual-Threat QB for Missouri State. Jordan's 2023 season ranks in the 43th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 272 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jordan Pachot's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Passing

184/272 Comp/Att2288 Pass yards19 Pass TD9 INT67.6% Comp %

Rushing

-111 Rush yards1 Rush TD39 Carries-2.8 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs QB peers

Efficiency43
Volume100
Dual-Threat54
Consistency85
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)43th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency85th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸8 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.22 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.20 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs UT Martin.

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · EPA per play, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	EPA/play	Pass	Rush
2	UT Martin	—	—	1.20	1.43	0.08
4	Utah Tech	—	—	0.68	0.68	—
5	Southern Illinois	—	—	0.23	0.23	—
6	North Dakota State	—	—	0.42	0.39	0.87
7	Western Illinois	—	—	1.01	1.05	0.72
8	Murray State	—	—	0.69	0.73	0.21
9	Youngstown State	—	—	0.40	0.43	0.20
10	Illinois State	—	—	0.46	0.44	0.92
11	Northern Iowa	—	—	0.59	0.67	-2.26
12	South Dakota State	—	—	0.31	0.33	0.02

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

46.9%

Passing plays

76.0%

Rushing plays

7.4%

Standard downs

40.1%

Passing downs

60.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.39
Passing downs: 0.71
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.55 / 0.17

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).