#6Jordan Lynch

QB·Northern Illinois·20131.2 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Jordan Lynch is a Dual-Threat QB for Northern Illinois. Jordan's 2013 season ranks in the 8th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 611 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jordan Lynch's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2013 Production

Passing

253/404 Comp/Att2892 Pass yards24 Pass TD8 INT62.6% Comp %

Rushing

1920 Rush yards23 Rush TD292 Carries6.6 Yards/carry

Punting

2 Punts52 Punt yards26.0 Yards/punt29 Long0 Inside 20

Performance Analysis · 2013 · vs QB peers

Efficiency8
Volume100
Dual-Threat64
Consistency79
Clutch78

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)8th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency79th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.13 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.45 EPA/play in Wk 12 vs Ball State (SP+ 8).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Iowa	W30-27	17.3	25/41	275	3	0	45.1	56	0	-0.00
3	@Idaho	W45-35	-35.6	17/29	152	3	0	67.8	159	2	0.03
4	vsEastern Illinois	W43-39	—	21/30	235	1	2	67.0	189	0	0.23
5	@Purdue	W55-24	-15.7	18/25	207	3	0	88.7	35	1	0.26
6	@Kent State	W38-24	-13.8	21/35	244	2	2	68.0	94	0	0.11
7	vsAkron	W27-20	-15.3	16/35	220	1	0	47.7	83	1	0.00
8	@Central Michigan	W38-17	-18.8	20/30	155	1	1	85.5	316	3	0.29
9	vsEastern Michigan	W59-20	-35.7	16/20	223	4	0	91.8	99	1	0.17
10	@Massachusetts	W63-19	-36.1	10/13	160	1	0	98.5	119	4	0.21
12	vsBall State	W48-27	7.5	26/32	345	2	0	91.3	123	2	0.45
13	@Toledo	W35-17	4.7	17/22	202	0	0	87.1	161	3	0.39
14	vsWestern Michigan	W33-14	-25.5	5/17	39	1	0	95.7	321	3	0.27
15	vsBowling Green	L27-47	9.8	21/40	219	1	2	35.8	126	2	0.05
1	vsUtah State	L14-21	4.2	20/35	216	1	1	33.9	39	1	0.27

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

62.0%

Passing plays

95.4%

Rushing plays

42.4%

Standard downs

56.7%

Passing downs

77.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.12
Passing downs: 0.31
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.16 / 0.22

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2013 · 14 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.