#10Jordan Love

QB·Utah State·201811.3 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Jordan Love is a Dual-Threat QB for Utah State. Jordan's 2018 season ranks in the 78th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 427 plays — a above-average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jordan Love's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2018 Production

Passing

266/416 Comp/Att3552 Pass yards32 Pass TD6 INT63.9% Comp %

Rushing

63 Rush yards7 Rush TD43 Carries1.5 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2018 · vs QB peers

Efficiency78
Volume100
Dual-Threat52
Consistency77
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)78th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency77th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the QB position (78th percentile).
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.09 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 1.12 EPA/play in Wk 7 vs UNLV (SP+ -11).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Tanner Mordecai	SMU	2021	510	0.630	14.0	321.5
Kaidon Salter	Liberty	2023	486	0.711	14.7	345.6
Malik Cunningham	Louisville	2021	502	0.681	14.7	341.6
Ryan Higgins	Louisiana Tech	2016	571	0.586	13.7	334.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Michigan State	L31-38	11.5	29/44	319	0	2	-2	1	0.24
2	vsNew Mexico State	W60-13	-20.2	14/27	159	1	1	-14	0	0.08
3	vsTennessee Tech	W73-12	—	21/26	236	2	0	2	1	0.51
4	vsAir Force	W42-32	-1.8	26/38	356	2	0	3	0	0.45
6	@BYU	W45-20	6.2	18/28	165	4	0	8	1	0.64
7	vsUNLV	W59-28	-11.1	17/23	322	5	0	39	0	1.12
8	@Wyoming	W24-16	1.9	12/28	53	0	1	-4	0	-0.28
9	vsNew Mexico	W61-19	-9.5	23/34	448	4	0	15	1	0.96
10	@Hawai'i	W56-17	-10.4	10/13	127	1	0	13	1	0.89
11	vsSan José State	W62-24	-17.1	32/42	491	5	0	-1	1	0.84
12	@Colorado State	W29-24	-10.3	15/24	169	1	0	8	0	0.34
13	@Boise State	L24-33	12.2	28/46	348	3	1	-7	0	0.29
1	vsNorth Texas	W52-13	2.1	21/43	359	4	1	3	1	0.25

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

48.0%

Passing plays

89.6%

Rushing plays

8.4%

Standard downs

45.5%

Passing downs

53.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.26
Passing downs: 0.87
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.49 / 0.16

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2018 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.