#7Jordan Dwyer

WR·TCU·2025

Jordan Dwyer is a Versatile WR for TCU. Jordan's 2025 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 82 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jordan Dwyer's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving

54 Receptions730 Rec yards7 Rec TD13.5 Yards/rec

Returns

7 Punt returns77 PR yards0 PR TD

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume28
Explosiveness43
Consistency73
Pass-Down81

Player type

Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency73th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸8 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 1.42 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs North Carolina (SP+ -7).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Quadree Henderson	Pittsburgh	2016	63	0.530	1.6	33.4
Keytaon Thompson	Mississippi State	2017	70	0.460	1.2	32.2
DeAndre Hughes	Air Force	2021	60	0.470	1.3	28.2
Savion Williams	TCU	2024	56	0.450	1.1	25.2
Javion Posey	Florida Atlantic	2020	53	0.450	1.4	23.8

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	@North Carolina	W48-14	-6.6	9	136	15.1	1	33	1.42
3	vsAbilene Christian	W42-21	—	5	89	17.8	1	31	0.72
4	vsSMU	W35-24	13.4	3	32	10.7	0	14	0.05
5	@Arizona State	L24-27	3.9	3	42	14.0	0	19	0.43
6	vsColorado	W35-21	-8.3	3	26	8.7	0	13	0.57
7	@Kansas State	L28-41	7.0	2	32	16.0	0	16	0.02
8	vsBaylor	W42-36	1.4	7	111	15.9	1	41	0.76
9	@West Virginia	W23-17	-6.8	3	26	8.7	0	11	-0.28
11	vsIowa State	L17-20	9.9	11	108	9.8	1	19	0.69
12	@BYU	L13-44	15.9	2	19	9.5	0	15	0.07
13	@Houston	W17-14	7.4	3	25	8.3	1	17	0.80
14	vsCincinnati	W45-23	4.5	3	84	28.0	2	69	1.22

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

9.9%

Passing plays

19.3%

Rushing plays

0.0%

Standard downs

8.4%

Passing downs

13.3%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.47
Passing downs: 0.66
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.55 / —

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).