#8Jase Bauer

QB·Central Michigan·2023

Jase Bauer is a Dual-Threat QB for Central Michigan. Jase's 2023 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 339 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jase Bauer's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Passing

163/287 Comp/Att1881 Pass yards12 Pass TD8 INT56.8% Comp %

Rushing

366 Rush yards10 Rush TD121 Carries3.0 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs QB peers

Efficiency0
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency77
Clutch94

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency77th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.67 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs Toledo (SP+ 4).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Michigan State	L7-31	-6.8	2/8	9	0	0	50.0	27	0	-0.24
2	vsNew Hampshire	W45-42	—	1/1	11	0	0	77.4	—	—	0.53
3	@Notre Dame	L17-41	20.1	10/20	137	0	0	57.3	16	1	0.14
4	@South Alabama	W34-30	5.1	19/30	224	1	0	83.2	55	4	0.56
5	vsEastern Michigan	W26-23	-12.3	19/26	218	1	1	63.5	10	1	0.51
6	@Buffalo	L13-37	-15.2	28/49	280	2	3	23.0	31	0	0.66
7	vsAkron	W17-10	-21.6	17/32	181	0	2	27.1	61	1	0.23
8	@Ball State	L17-24	-14.9	19/31	161	1	0	40.2	23	0	0.19
10	vsNorthern Illinois	W37-31	-7.5	9/16	116	1	0	51.5	106	2	0.33
11	@Western Michigan	L28-38	-15.9	14/27	205	3	1	45.7	40	0	0.35
12	@Ohio	L20-34	-1.6	10/21	157	2	1	6.0	-2	0	0.12
13	vsToledo	L17-32	3.7	15/26	182	1	0	39.1	-1	1	0.67

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

47.5%

Passing plays

78.7%

Rushing plays

23.4%

Standard downs

42.7%

Passing downs

56.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.26
Passing downs: 0.52
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.35 / 0.42

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).