#13Jake Bentley

QB·South Carolina·20189.2 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Jake Bentley is a Dual-Threat QB for South Carolina. Jake's 2018 season ranks in the 75th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 409 plays — a above-average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jake Bentley's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2018 Production

Passing

240/388 Comp/Att3171 Pass yards27 Pass TD14 INT61.9% Comp %

Rushing

88 Rush yards2 Rush TD64 Carries1.4 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2018 · vs QB peers

Efficiency75
Volume100
Dual-Threat91
Consistency78
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)75th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency78th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the QB position (75th percentile).
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.83 EPA/play in Wk 12 vs Chattanooga.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Tanner Mordecai	SMU	2021	510	0.630	14.0	321.5

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsCoastal Carolina	W49-15	-17.2	22/29	250	4	0	-1	0	0.67
2	vsGeorgia	L17-41	32.9	30/47	269	1	2	10	0	0.06
4	@Vanderbilt	W37-14	7.6	19/28	261	1	1	45	0	0.45
5	@Kentucky	L10-24	13.1	13/28	148	1	3	37	0	0.19
6	vsMissouri	W37-35	20.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	vsTexas A&M	L23-26	21.6	17/35	223	3	1	9	0	0.26
9	vsTennessee	W27-24	5.5	11/16	152	1	1	20	0	0.43
10	@Ole Miss	W48-44	9.8	22/32	363	2	0	8	1	0.57
11	@Florida	L31-35	23.0	18/28	239	2	1	8	1	0.55
12	vsChattanooga	W49-9	—	25/29	339	4	0	-12	0	0.83
13	@Clemson	L35-56	29.7	32/50	510	5	1	-20	0	0.50
14	vsAkron	W28-3	-19.3	14/27	199	3	2	-14	0	-0.07
1	vsVirginia	L0-28	7.1	17/39	218	0	2	-2	0	-0.04

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

55.4%

Passing plays

95.2%

Rushing plays

12.4%

Standard downs

50.8%

Passing downs

66.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.22
Passing downs: 0.66
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.38 / 0.35

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2018 · 12 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.