Giovanni Lopez

QB·North Carolina·2025

Giovanni Lopez is a Clutch Passer for North Carolina. Giovanni's 2025 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 337 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Giovanni Lopez's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Passing

170/261 Comp/Att1747 Pass yards10 Pass TD5 INT65.1% Comp %

Rushing

133 Rush yards3 Rush TD86 Carries1.5 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs QB peers

Efficiency0
Volume100
Dual-Threat37
Consistency50
Clutch100

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency50th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.28 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.65 EPA/play in Wk 10 vs Syracuse (SP+ -13).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsTCU	L14-48	8.3	4/10	69	0	1	1.9	-10	0	-0.34
2	@Charlotte	W20-3	-26.7	17/25	155	1	0	49.2	44	0	0.28
3	vsRichmond	W41-6	—	10/18	119	2	0	31.3	40	1	0.40
4	@UCF	L9-34	-1.2	11/14	87	0	2	15.5	-5	0	-0.07
8	@California	L18-21	-3.2	19/35	167	0	0	65.7	11	0	-0.03
9	vsVirginia	L16-17	11.1	23/36	208	1	2	43.4	12	1	-0.09
10	@Syracuse	W27-10	-13.1	15/19	216	2	0	86.4	33	0	0.65
11	vsStanford	W20-15	-11.8	18/25	203	2	0	53.0	-6	0	0.42
12	@Wake Forest	L12-28	5.7	21/36	201	0	0	66.3	2	0	0.16
13	vsDuke	L25-32	6.6	21/27	204	1	0	65.2	20	1	0.36
14	@NC State	L19-42	4.8	11/16	118	1	0	67.3	-8	0	0.07

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

52.2%

Passing plays

83.4%

Rushing plays

21.4%

Standard downs

46.7%

Passing downs

65.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.03
Passing downs: 0.39
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.21 / 0.09

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).