#21Elijah Green

RB·Sam Houston·2025

Elijah Green is a Pass-Catching Back for Sam Houston. Elijah's 2025 season ranks in the 13th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 66 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Elijah Green's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Rushing

391 Rush yards2 Rush TD58 Carries6.7 Yards/carry

Receiving

15 Receptions133 Rec yards1 Rec TD8.9 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers

Efficiency13
Volume43
Explosiveness74
Consistency0
Receiving79

Player type

Pass-Catching Back

Third-down weapon out of the backfield. Routes, hands, and separation in coverage define this role as much as rushing.

3rd-down backReceiving threatPass protection

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)13th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency0th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.10 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.85 EPA/play in Wk 10 vs Louisiana Tech (SP+ -1).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
0	@Western Kentucky	L24-41	1.6	6	10	1.7	0	7	61	0	—
1	vsUNLV	L21-38	4.3	8	36	4.5	0	1	18	0	0.15
2	@Hawai'i	L20-37	1.7	10	30	3.0	0	3	45	1	0.30
4	@Texas	L0-55	16.2	2	-2	-1.0	0	1	9	0	-0.37
8	vsUTEP	L17-35	-17.5	5	6	1.2	0	—	—	—	-0.48
10	@Louisiana Tech	L14-55	-1.3	10	191	19.1	2	1	7	0	0.85
11	@Oregon State	W21-17	-15.9	6	22	3.7	0	1	-4	0	-0.27
14	vsFlorida International	L16-56	-10.5	11	98	8.9	0	1	-3	0	0.40

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

15.1%

Passing plays

6.6%

Rushing plays

25.7%

Standard downs

18.4%

Passing downs

9.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.11
Passing downs: 0.33
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.37 / 0.09

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).