#17Drew Mestemaker

QB·North Texas·20256.9 pts line value

Drew Mestemaker is a Dual-Threat QB for North Texas. Drew's 2025 season ranks in the 65th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 481 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Drew Mestemaker's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Passing

319/465 Comp/Att4369 Pass yards34 Pass TD9 INT68.6% Comp %

Rushing

89 Rush yards5 Rush TD57 Carries1.6 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs QB peers

Efficiency65
Volume100
Dual-Threat95
Consistency82
Clutch84

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)65th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency82th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸9 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.17 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 1.28 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs Rice (SP+ -15).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsLamar	W51-0	—	24/32	329	3	0	87.3	30	1	0.80
2	@Western Michigan	W33-30	-1.4	18/33	224	2	0	51.7	24	0	0.45
3	vsWashington State	W59-10	3.8	24/29	211	4	0	82.8	-5	0	0.58
4	@Army	W45-38	0.8	26/36	249	1	0	74.3	20	0	0.27
5	vsSouth Alabama	W36-22	-12.7	14/26	234	1	0	48.5	-4	1	0.36
7	vsSouth Florida	L36-63	11.6	30/48	326	2	3	47.6	0	1	0.36
8	vsUTSA	W55-17	3.7	22/35	277	4	0	68.3	7	1	0.44
9	@Charlotte	W54-20	-26.7	37/49	608	4	1	42.6	-7	0	0.49
10	vsNavy	W31-17	6.2	19/24	234	0	0	72.3	-14	0	0.46
12	@UAB	W53-24	-15.8	18/25	298	2	0	88.2	5	0	0.54
13	@Rice	W56-24	-14.8	19/23	469	3	0	99.2	1	1	1.28
14	vsTemple	W52-25	-5.1	20/24	366	3	0	98.8	—	—	1.04
15	@Tulane	L21-34	6.3	21/34	294	2	3	59.1	14	0	-0.02
20	vsSan Diego State	W49-47	6.7	27/47	250	3	2	70.3	18	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

50.6%

Passing plays

94.9%

Rushing plays

8.5%

Standard downs

46.9%

Passing downs

61.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.37
Passing downs: 0.59
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.45 / 0.37

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2025 · 14 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.