#1D'Eriq King

QB·Houston·2020 201814.0 pts line value1st Round

D'Eriq King is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Houston. D'Eriq's 2018 season ranks in the 88th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 447 plays — a above-average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So D'Eriq King's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2018 Production

Passing

219/345 Comp/Att2982 Pass yards36 Pass TD6 INT63.5% Comp %

Rushing

674 Rush yards14 Rush TD111 Carries6.1 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2018 · vs QB peers

Efficiency88
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency89
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)88th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency89th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the QB position (88th percentile).
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸8 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.95 EPA/play in Wk 9 vs South Florida (SP+ -1).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Kaidon Salter	Liberty	2023	486	0.711	14.7	345.6
Malik Cunningham	Louisville	2021	502	0.681	14.7	341.6
Tanner Mordecai	SMU	2021	510	0.630	14.0	321.5
Blake Sims	Alabama	2014	473	0.696	15.4	329.4
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Rice	W45-27	-26.4	17/24	320	3	0	33	1	0.70
2	vsArizona	W45-18	3.6	17/34	246	4	0	31	2	0.56
3	@Texas Tech	L49-63	8.7	30/51	431	5	0	47	1	0.43
4	vsTexas Southern	W70-14	—	20/25	200	3	1	-4	1	0.59
6	vsTulsa	W41-26	-11.2	19/27	165	3	2	117	2	0.36
7	@East Carolina	W42-20	-14.9	13/23	209	2	0	1	1	0.30
8	@Navy	W49-36	-10.2	25/38	413	3	0	56	1	0.71
9	vsSouth Florida	W57-36	-1.2	28/40	419	5	2	132	2	0.95
10	@SMU	L31-45	-5.4	11/22	175	2	0	54	1	0.41
11	vsTemple	L49-59	2.9	28/46	322	5	1	125	1	0.47
12	vsTulane	W48-17	-3.5	11/15	82	1	0	82	1	0.32

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

53.3%

Passing plays

87.0%

Rushing plays

23.1%

Standard downs

47.6%

Passing downs

65.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.32
Passing downs: 0.90
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.52 / 0.61

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2018 — 2020 · 22 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2018	Houston	14.0	0.651	—	307.4
2020	Miami	9.7	0.503	-0.15	244.0

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.