#4Cyrus Allen

WR·Louisiana Tech·2023

Cyrus Allen is a Versatile WR for Louisiana Tech. Cyrus's 2023 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 51 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Cyrus Allen's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Receiving

46 Receptions778 Rec yards4 Rec TD16.9 Yards/rec

Returns

8 Kick returns141 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume20
Explosiveness66
Consistency80
Pass-Down100

Player type

Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency80th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸9 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.33 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 2.88 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs UTEP (SP+ -16).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
0	vsFlorida International	W22-17	-21.2	5	48	9.6	0	13	—
1	@SMU	L14-38	10.1	1	14	14.0	0	14	0.54
3	vsNorth Texas	L37-40	-6.7	5	82	16.4	1	43	1.34
4	@Nebraska	L14-28	0.3	6	102	17.0	1	28	1.02
5	@UTEP	W24-10	-16.2	1	85	85.0	0	85	2.88
6	vsWestern Kentucky	L28-35	-2.0	1	18	18.0	0	18	-0.12
7	@Middle Tennessee	L23-31	-9.5	7	103	14.7	0	38	0.95
9	vsNew Mexico State	L24-27	-1.8	3	35	11.7	0	16	1.54
10	@Liberty	L30-56	8.0	5	68	13.6	0	26	0.82
11	vsSam Houston	L27-42	-13.8	7	170	24.3	1	44	1.30
12	@Jacksonville State	L17-56	-1.6	5	53	10.6	1	31	0.98

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

7.1%

Passing plays

12.1%

Rushing plays

0.9%

Standard downs

7.0%

Passing downs

7.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 1.01
Passing downs: 1.58
Pass / Rush EPA: 1.35 / -1.18

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).