What projects, and what doesn't · TEs · held out 2019-2025
How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.
- Usage share (volume)0.42Beats guessing the TE average by 9%. n=2,225 TE seasons
- EPA per play (efficiency)0.04Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=2,016 TE seasons
- Total EPA (value)0.46Beats guessing the TE average by 13%. n=2,016 TE seasons
Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Cole Rusk's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.
2025 Production
Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs TE peers
- Efficiency100
- Volume11
- Explosiveness29
- Consistency62
- Pass-Down100
The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.
- ▸Top-10% efficiency among TEs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
- ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
- ▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
- ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.09 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
- ▸Peak game: 2.95 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Duke (SP+ 7).
NIL Market Tier· 2025
On3 valuation ↗Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.26
- Passing downs
- 1.40
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.88 / —
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).