#18Clayton Thorson

QB·Northwestern·2018 20162.8 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Clayton Thorson is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Northwestern. Clayton's 2018 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 566 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Clayton Thorson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2018 Production

Passing

298/490 Comp/Att3181 Pass yards17 Pass TD15 INT60.8% Comp %

Rushing

-110 Rush yards9 Rush TD78 Carries-1.4 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2018 · vs QB peers

Efficiency0
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency63
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency63th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.65 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs Illinois (SP+ -8).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Purdue	W31-27	6.5	16/27	172	0	0	8	0	0.09
2	vsDuke	L7-21	5.0	22/38	198	0	1	-19	0	-0.08
3	vsAkron	L34-39	-19.3	33/52	383	3	2	-20	0	0.04
5	vsMichigan	L17-20	22.0	16/27	174	0	0	-36	1	0.06
6	@Michigan State	W29-19	11.5	31/47	373	3	2	-8	1	0.48
7	vsNebraska	W34-31	5.4	41/64	455	3	2	-7	0	0.35
8	@Rutgers	W18-15	-12.3	17/34	150	0	0	-27	0	-0.01
9	vsWisconsin	W31-17	15.5	17/30	167	1	3	29	2	0.07
10	vsNotre Dame	L21-31	20.7	16/29	141	1	0	-10	2	0.12
11	@Iowa	W14-10	13.3	15/30	122	1	2	1	0	-0.06
12	@Minnesota	W24-14	6.3	15/21	230	0	0	-10	1	0.39
13	vsIllinois	W24-16	-7.9	12/18	110	2	0	-2	1	0.65
14	vsOhio State	L24-45	24.1	26/43	265	1	2	-3	1	0.02
1	vsUtah	W31-20	16.8	21/30	241	2	1	-6	0	0.27

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

53.7%

Passing plays

93.2%

Rushing plays

8.9%

Standard downs

48.1%

Passing downs

65.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.03
Passing downs: 0.35
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.14 / 0.42

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2016 — 2018 · 27 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2016	Northwestern	5.3	0.376	—	206.3
2018	Northwestern	2.8	0.331	-0.04	196.4

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.