CJ Donaldson

RB·Ohio State·2025 2023

CJ Donaldson is a Explosive Back for Ohio State. CJ's 2025 season ranks in the 57th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 106 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So CJ Donaldson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Rushing

361 Rush yards10 Rush TD96 Carries3.8 Yards/carry

Receiving

15 Receptions96 Rec yards1 Rec TD6.4 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers

Efficiency57
Volume38
Explosiveness16
Consistency76
Receiving53

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)57th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency76th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Peak game: 1.13 EPA/play in Wk 6 vs Minnesota (SP+ 2).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsTexas	W14-7	16.2	19	67	3.5	1	1	9	0	0.06
2	vsGrambling	W70-0	—	5	45	9.0	1	—	—	—	0.97
3	vsOhio	W37-9	-4.0	9	39	4.3	0	2	13	0	0.21
5	@Washington	W24-6	18.4	9	39	4.3	1	1	4	1	0.27
6	vsMinnesota	W42-3	1.5	3	3	1.0	1	—	—	—	1.13
7	@Illinois	W34-16	12.9	13	44	3.4	2	1	4	0	0.21
8	@Wisconsin	W34-0	-4.4	2	12	6.0	0	3	26	0	0.33
10	vsPenn State	W38-14	18.1	7	17	2.4	1	—	—	—	0.19
11	@Purdue	W34-10	-6.1	5	12	2.4	2	—	—	—	0.89
13	vsRutgers	W42-9	1.0	3	8	2.7	1	—	—	—	0.28
14	@Michigan	W27-9	12.4	14	44	3.1	0	—	—	—	0.07
15	vsIndiana	L10-13	32.4	—	—	—	—	2	9	0	0.69
20	vsMiami	L14-24	20.7	7	31	4.4	0	5	31	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

13.3%

Passing plays

3.9%

Rushing plays

22.4%

Standard downs

13.9%

Passing downs

11.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.21
Passing downs: 0.26
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.46 / 0.18

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2023 · 12 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.