#20Christian Washington

RB·San Diego State·2025

Christian Washington is a Explosive Back for San Diego State. Christian's 2025 season ranks in the 25th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 83 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Christian Washington's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Rushing

560 Rush yards4 Rush TD97 Carries5.8 Yards/carry

Receiving

7 Receptions45 Rec yards1 Rec TD6.4 Yards/rec

Returns

3 Kick returns59 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers

Efficiency25
Volume33
Explosiveness56
Consistency19
Receiving34

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)25th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency19th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.76 EPA/play in Wk 12 vs Boise State (SP+ 3).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsStony Brook	W42-0	—	7	38	5.4	1	—	—	—	0.64
2	@Washington State	L13-36	3.8	3	11	3.7	0	1	5	0	-0.08
4	vsCalifornia	W34-0	-3.2	9	48	5.3	0	1	11	0	0.09
5	@Northern Illinois	W6-3	-16.7	12	22	1.8	0	—	—	—	-0.51
6	vsColorado State	W45-24	-15.6	8	28	3.5	1	—	—	—	0.02
7	@Nevada	W44-10	-13.4	9	51	5.7	0	1	2	1	0.47
9	@Fresno State	W23-0	1.8	4	16	4.0	0	—	—	—	0.07
10	vsWyoming	W24-7	-11.3	2	9	4.5	0	—	—	—	-0.20
11	@Hawai'i	L6-38	1.7	3	15	5.0	0	—	—	—	-0.16
12	vsBoise State	W17-7	3.1	9	98	10.9	0	—	—	—	0.76
13	vsSan José State	W25-3	-14.3	10	70	7.0	1	—	—	—	0.40
14	@New Mexico	L17-23	0.9	11	77	7.0	0	—	—	—	0.07
20	vsNorth Texas	L47-49	13.8	10	77	7.7	1	4	27	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

11.7%

Passing plays

2.2%

Rushing plays

17.5%

Standard downs

12.6%

Passing downs

9.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.15
Passing downs: 0.29
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.42 / 0.17

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).