#10Chase Jenkins

QB·Rice·2025

Chase Jenkins is a Clutch Passer for Rice. Chase's 2025 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 284 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Chase Jenkins's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Passing

119/172 Comp/Att1025 Pass yards9 Pass TD2 INT69.2% Comp %

Rushing

531 Rush yards5 Rush TD151 Carries3.5 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs QB peers

Efficiency0
Volume100
Dual-Threat22
Consistency0
Clutch66

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency0th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.12 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.54 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs Charlotte (SP+ -27).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Louisiana	W14-12	-10.1	7/9	45	0	0	4.6	-13	0	-0.42
2	vsHouston	L9-35	7.4	10/12	50	0	1	17.0	33	1	0.12
3	vsPrairie View A&M	W38-17	—	10/16	87	1	0	39.6	124	1	0.17
4	@Charlotte	W28-17	-26.7	8/11	87	1	0	77.5	71	1	0.54
5	@Navy	L13-21	6.2	12/21	114	1	0	30.6	33	0	0.14
6	vsFlorida Atlantic	L21-27	-8.7	12/17	137	1	0	59.0	20	1	0.26
7	@UTSA	L13-61	3.7	1/3	33	0	0	17.2	7	0	0.14
9	vsUConn	W37-34	5.1	17/22	191	1	0	42.8	57	0	0.17
10	vsMemphis	L14-38	7.6	11/16	100	1	1	42.7	34	0	0.29
11	vsUAB	W24-17	-15.8	11/15	41	2	0	22.3	56	0	-0.22
13	vsNorth Texas	L24-56	13.8	14/21	101	1	0	73.4	75	1	0.01
14	@South Florida	L3-52	11.6	6/9	39	0	0	23.2	34	0	-0.29

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

38.9%

Passing plays

82.9%

Rushing plays

23.0%

Standard downs

33.8%

Passing downs

50.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.03
Passing downs: 0.16
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.14 / 0.01

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).