#11Carson Beck

QB·Miami·2025 2024 20236.5 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Carson Beck is a 3-year Clutch Passer for Miami. Carson's 2025 season ranks in the 55th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 503 plays — a average rate for the QB. Production has trended downward season-over-season on adjusted value metrics.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Carson Beck's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Passing

338/468 Comp/Att3813 Pass yards30 Pass TD12 INT72.2% Comp %

Rushing

43 Rush yards2 Rush TD62 Carries0.7 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs QB peers

Efficiency55
Volume100
Dual-Threat20
Consistency85
Clutch83

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)55th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency85th %ile · above avg

Career trajectory:↓ Declining

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸Production has slipped season-over-season on adjusted value metrics.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸9 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.17 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.80 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Bethune-Cookman.

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsNotre Dame	W27-24	24.4	20/31	205	2	0	84.9	-2	0	0.44
2	vsBethune-Cookman	W45-3	—	22/24	267	2	0	95.2	—	—	0.80
3	vsSouth Florida	W49-12	11.6	23/28	340	3	2	91.4	28	1	0.70
4	vsFlorida	W26-7	3.5	17/30	160	0	1	51.4	-7	0	0.01
6	@Florida State	W28-22	7.2	20/27	241	4	0	89.1	-1	0	0.48
8	vsLouisville	L21-24	12.4	25/35	271	0	4	67.7	8	0	0.10
9	vsStanford	W42-7	-11.8	21/28	189	1	0	69.0	8	0	0.41
10	@SMU	L20-26	13.4	26/38	274	2	2	79.7	17	0	0.34
11	vsSyracuse	W38-10	-13.1	18/24	247	1	0	62.8	-6	0	0.46
12	vsNC State	W41-7	4.8	21/27	291	3	0	75.7	2	0	0.63
13	@Virginia Tech	W34-17	-10.1	27/32	320	4	0	95.3	9	0	0.80
14	@Pittsburgh	W38-7	8.4	23/29	267	3	1	81.8	-17	0	0.44
20	vsOle Miss	W31-27	24.0	23/37	268	2	1	78.3	-6	1	—
20	vsOhio State	W24-14	30.1	19/26	138	1	0	95.2	23	0	—
20	vsIndiana	L21-27	32.4	19/32	232	1	1	86.2	-7	0	—
20	@Texas A&M	W10-3	20.7	14/20	103	1	0	60.4	-6	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

49.2%

Passing plays

94.6%

Rushing plays

8.9%

Standard downs

40.2%

Passing downs

75.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.28
Passing downs: 0.50
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.42 / -0.00

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2023 — 2025 · 43 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2023	Georgia	10.6	0.605	—	283.3
2024	Georgia	6.8	0.448	-0.16	225.6
2025	Miami	6.5	0.412	-0.04	203.8

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.