Caleb Goodie

WR·Cincinnati·2025

Caleb Goodie is a Versatile WR for Cincinnati. Caleb's 2025 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 51 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Caleb Goodie's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving

29 Receptions484 Rec yards2 Rec TD16.7 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume26
Explosiveness65
Consistency33
Pass-Down47

Player type

Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency33th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.75 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 2.32 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Northwestern State.

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Ainias Smith	Texas A&M	2020	55	0.310	0.5	17.0
Nick Nash	San José State	2021	45	0.310	0.5	14.0
Keytaon Thompson	Virginia	2020	39	0.320	0.4	12.5
Xavier White	Texas Tech	2020	62	0.300	0.5	18.6
Cade Harris	Air Force	2024	45	0.330	0.5	14.8

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsNebraska	L17-20	6.2	1	5	5.0	0	5	-0.65
2	vsBowling Green	W34-20	-12.6	4	49	12.3	0	23	0.35
3	vsNorthwestern State	W70-0	—	3	106	35.3	1	55	2.32
5	@Kansas	W37-34	4.1	5	91	18.2	0	29	0.57
6	vsIowa State	W38-30	9.9	2	83	41.5	1	82	1.08
7	vsUCF	W20-11	-1.2	2	20	10.0	0	14	-0.19
8	@Oklahoma State	W49-17	-15.1	1	5	5.0	0	5	-0.12
10	@Utah	L14-45	22.2	2	21	10.5	0	12	-0.31
13	vsBYU	L14-26	15.9	4	37	9.3	0	19	0.30
14	@TCU	L23-45	8.3	5	67	13.4	0	40	0.22

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

9.1%

Passing plays

18.1%

Rushing plays

0.0%

Standard downs

9.0%

Passing downs

9.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.30
Passing downs: 0.28
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.30 / —

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).