#17Byrum Brown

QB·South Florida·2025 20235.3 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Byrum Brown is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for South Florida. Byrum's 2023 season ranks in the 5th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 568 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Byrum Brown's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Passing

276/426 Comp/Att3292 Pass yards26 Pass TD11 INT64.8% Comp %

Rushing

809 Rush yards11 Rush TD203 Carries4.0 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs QB peers

Efficiency5
Volume100
Dual-Threat91
Consistency78
Clutch96

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)5th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency78th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.71 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs Rice (SP+ -10).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Contributor

Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Western Kentucky	L24-41	-2.0	15/34	166	1	2	52.8	160	2	0.29
2	vsFlorida A&M	W38-24	—	20/34	197	3	0	43.9	23	2	0.17
3	vsAlabama	L3-17	23.1	14/28	87	0	1	33.7	92	0	-0.15
4	vsRice	W42-29	-10.2	22/29	435	2	0	83.5	82	1	0.71
5	@Navy	W44-30	-13.7	26/34	338	3	0	75.4	-27	0	0.42
6	@UAB	L35-56	-14.7	24/43	260	2	2	55.4	136	2	0.31
7	vsFlorida Atlantic	L14-56	-9.4	15/26	179	1	0	60.3	46	0	0.13
8	@UConn	W24-21	-15.6	27/39	203	0	1	37.0	61	1	0.11
10	@Memphis	L50-59	3.5	31/38	357	5	1	71.5	100	0	0.50
11	vsTemple	W27-23	-21.0	18/26	316	1	1	27.6	-14	1	0.42
12	@UTSA	L21-49	5.4	23/39	287	1	2	47.9	43	1	0.15
13	vsCharlotte	W48-14	-21.4	22/30	253	4	1	65.0	43	1	0.49
20	vsSyracuse	W45-0	-4.4	19/26	214	3	0	74.1	64	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

60.4%

Passing plays

94.7%

Rushing plays

30.8%

Standard downs

55.2%

Passing downs

70.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.18
Passing downs: 0.46
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.28 / 0.35

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2023 — 2025 · 25 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2023	South Florida	5.3	0.403	—	243.1
2025	South Florida	8.4	0.419	+0.02	210.2

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.