#6Barion Brown

WR·Kentucky·2024

Barion Brown is a Versatile WR for Kentucky. Barion's 2024 season produced 22.8 total EPA across 43 plays.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Barion Brown's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Rushing

50 Rush yards1 Rush TD13 Carries3.8 Yards/carry

Receiving

29 Receptions361 Rec yards3 Rec TD12.4 Yards/rec

Returns

19 Kick returns449 KR yards1 KR TD1 Punt returns6 PR yards0 PR TD

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume19
Explosiveness36
Consistency36
Pass-Down66

Player type

Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency36th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.24 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 1.01 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs Ole Miss (SP+ 28).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Savion Williams	TCU	2024	56	0.450	1.1	25.2
DeAndre Hughes	Air Force	2021	60	0.470	1.3	28.2
Keytaon Thompson	Mississippi State	2017	70	0.460	1.2	32.2
Quadree Henderson	Pittsburgh	2016	63	0.530	1.6	33.4
Dane Kinamon	Air Force	2021	39	0.410	0.7	16.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsSouthern Miss	W31-0	-25.6	4	28	7.0	2	12	0.61
2	vsSouth Carolina	L6-31	16.9	—	—	—	—	—	-1.56
3	vsGeorgia	L12-13	24.3	3	34	11.3	0	18	0.30
4	vsOhio	W41-6	2.3	5	28	5.6	0	19	0.64
5	@Ole Miss	W20-17	27.9	5	88	17.6	0	63	1.01
7	vsVanderbilt	L13-20	4.9	3	36	12.0	0	23	0.34
8	@Florida	L20-48	13.8	2	56	28.0	1	45	0.94
9	vsAuburn	L10-24	9.5	1	8	8.0	0	8	-0.05
10	@Tennessee	L18-28	22.0	3	29	9.7	0	16	0.42
13	@Texas	L14-31	24.1	1	43	43.0	0	43	0.90
14	vsLouisville	L14-41	13.6	2	11	5.5	0	7	-0.03

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

6.7%

Passing plays

10.6%

Rushing plays

3.6%

Standard downs

6.9%

Passing downs

6.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.50
Passing downs: 0.59
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.77 / -0.09

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).