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Avery Johnson

#2Avery Johnson

Line value
7.7 pts
NFL Draft OutlookDay 2 (Rds 2–3)· model estimate based on position rank

Avery Johnson is a Dual-Threat QB for Kansas State. Avery's 2024 season ranks in the 48th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 472 plays — a average rate for the QB.

2024 Production

Passing
217/372 Comp/Att2712 Pass yards25 Pass TD10 INT58.3% Comp %
Rushing
605 Rush yards7 Rush TD113 Carries5.4 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs QB peers

EfficiencyVolumeDual-ThreatConsistencyClutch
Player type
Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)48th %ile · average
Game-to-game consistency82th %ile · above avg
Key findings
  • High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
  • High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
  • 7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
  • Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
  • Production faded as the season progressed — 0.11 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
  • Peak game: 0.94 EPA/play in Wk 8 vs West Virginia (SP+ 2).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗
Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2014–2024 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

PlayerTeamYrPlaysWEPA/playLine valTotal EPA
Stetson BennettGeorgia20225090.63512.4323.0
Kyle McCordSyracuse20246320.50912.1321.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

Wk 1 vs UT Martin: +0.17 EPA/play1Wk 2 vs Tulane: +0.43 EPA/play2Wk 3 vs Arizona: +0.43 EPA/play3Wk 4 vs BYU: +0.12 EPA/play4Wk 5 vs Oklahoma State: +0.69 EPA/play5Wk 7 vs Colorado: +0.51 EPA/play7Wk 8 vs West Virginia: +0.94 EPA/play8Wk 9 vs Kansas: +0.25 EPA/play9Wk 10 vs Houston: +0.18 EPA/play10Wk 12 vs Arizona State: +0.10 EPA/play12Wk 13 vs Cincinnati: +0.42 EPA/play13Wk 14 vs Iowa State: +0.35 EPA/play14Wk 1 vs Rutgers: +0.41 EPA/play1
EPA per play, by weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+C/ATTPass YdsPass TDINTQBRRush YdsRush TDEPA/play
1vsUT MartinW41-614/211532139.53700.17
2@TulaneW34-275.715/231812075.54000.43
3vsArizonaW31-7-2.814/231562075.211000.43
4@BYUL9-3815.315/281300245.17400.12
5vsOklahoma StateW42-20-2.619/312593192.66020.69
7@ColoradoW31-288.115/232242161.9-1510.51
8@West VirginiaW45-182.119/292983096.50.94
9vsKansasW29-274.919/342532066.76710.25
10@HoustonL19-24-8.223/392381247.91800.18
12vsArizona StateL14-249.424/402580254.52110.10
13vsCincinnatiW41-15-0.113/231472077.37210.42
14@Iowa StateL21-2910.312/282203061.56400.35
1vsRutgersW44-416.415/301953171.45710.41

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
57.7%
Passing plays
97.7%
Rushing plays
23.2%
Standard downs
53.4%
Passing downs
67.5%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
0.28
Passing downs
0.53
Pass / Rush EPA
0.34 / 0.50

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg
2024 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.