#16Austin Reed

QB·Western Kentucky·2023 20226.1 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Austin Reed is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Western Kentucky. Austin's 2022 season ranks in the 5th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 564 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Austin Reed's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2022 Production

Passing

390/602 Comp/Att4747 Pass yards40 Pass TD11 INT64.8% Comp %

Rushing

232 Rush yards8 Rush TD90 Carries2.6 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2022 · vs QB peers

Efficiency5
Volume100
Dual-Threat98
Consistency83
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)5th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency83th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.10 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.71 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Austin Peay.

NIL Market Tier· 2022

On3 valuation ↗

Contributor

Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsAustin Peay	W38-27	—	20/34	279	4	1	76.5	6	0	0.71
1	@Hawai'i	W49-17	-24.7	22/31	271	3	1	64.8	43	1	0.71
3	@Indiana	L30-33	-7.1	33/43	329	2	1	65.2	18	1	0.18
4	vsFlorida International	W73-0	-25.5	30/35	381	5	0	96.9	—	—	—
5	vsTroy	L27-34	8.1	39/56	406	3	1	66.6	10	0	0.27
6	@UTSA	L28-31	7.2	35/49	373	2	0	61.1	43	1	0.40
7	@Middle Tennessee	W35-17	-6.9	32/49	278	2	1	64.1	39	1	0.18
8	vsUAB	W20-17	-0.5	14/23	128	0	0	64.6	23	2	0.12
9	vsNorth Texas	L13-40	-1.5	29/49	320	1	1	37.0	-6	0	0.12
10	@Charlotte	W59-7	-16.4	23/38	409	6	0	76.9	-8	0	0.44
11	vsRice	W45-10	-15.2	23/33	377	3	1	88.6	11	1	0.53
12	@Auburn	L17-41	5.1	26/55	289	2	2	57.4	10	0	0.18
13	@Florida Atlantic	W32-31	-7.1	28/52	410	3	1	60.9	18	1	—
1	vsSouth Alabama	W44-23	10.8	36/55	497	4	1	—	25	0	0.46

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

67.0%

Passing plays

97.3%

Rushing plays

21.5%

Standard downs

61.7%

Passing downs

78.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.21
Passing downs: 0.52
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.33 / 0.39

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2022 — 2023 · 24 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2022	Western Kentucky	6.1	0.411	—	240.7
2023	Western Kentucky	8.8	0.520	+0.11	256.3

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.