Winnipeg Jets at Montréal Canadiens
TV TSN2, TSN3·Centre Bell
Our win probability
and the three reasons
45%Jets
to win
55%
Canadiens
- Expected goals
- 2.8–3.1
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors MTL.491vs.515win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors WPG-.048vs-.0725v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signaleven.117vs.129GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors MTL.027vs.4315v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors MTLMTL at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersJets
Connor Hellebuyck+0.18 GSAx/6057% to start683 career GP
Stuart Skinner+0.04 GSAx/6043% to start277 career GP
Canadiens
Samuel Montembeault+0.06 GSAx/6062% to start234 career GP
Jakub Dobes+0.25 GSAx/6038% to start81 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: WPG Scott Arniel · MTL Martin St. Louis
Leaders
vs- Points
M. Scheifele103
N. Suzuki101 - Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 2.7925th
- Goals for / game
- 7th3.40
- 3.1221st
- Goals against / game
- 16th3.06
- 18.5%24th
- Power play
- 10th23.1%
- 77.6%21st
- Penalty kill
- 18th78.2%
- 51.1%9th
- Faceoffs
- 11th51.0%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).