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Panthers at Lightning
NHL

Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Florida Panthers
▸5
Tampa Bay Lightning
3
FinalTV The Spot, SCRIPPS·Benchmark International Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Florida Panthers beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 5-3. The Panthers scored first and never trailed. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Cole Reinhardt's goal at 5:35 of the third period, which took the Panthers' chances from 48% to 76%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 3.7 to 2.7; shots on goal were FLA 25, TBL 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 77% of the time. Cooper Black stopped 14 of 16 (.875); Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 20 of 24 (.833), 2.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Cole Reinhardt (1 G, 1 A), 2. Jansen Harkins (2 G), 3. Conor Geekie (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    FLA
    C. Reinhardt1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TBL
    J. Harkins2 G
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    C. Geekie1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
FLAFLA14110311525
TBLTBL05211112328

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. FLA
    B. Imama(1)
    D. Sebrango (1), S. Lafferty (1)
    deflectedxG 0.09win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-0
    19:44

2nd period

  1. FLA
    K. Schwindt(1)
    C. Reinhardt (1), M. Hovorka (1)
    snapxG 0.06win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-0
    2:29
  2. TBL
    J. Harkins(1)
    I. Mikheyev (1), J. Moser (1)
    snapxG 0.11win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-1
    3:14
  3. TBL
    C. Geekie(2)
    S. O'Reilly (2), B. Rautiainen (1)
    snapxG 0.26win prob +20 ptsVideo
    2-2
    13:09

3rd period

  1. FLA
    H. St. Martin(1)
    A. Petrovic (1), K. Schwindt (1)
    backhandxG 0.08win prob +27 ptsVideo
    3-2
    4:21
  2. TBL
    J. Harkins(2)
    R. McDonagh (1), J. Pelletier (1)
    snapxG 0.36win prob +28 ptsVideo
    3-3
    5:29
  3. FLA
    C. Reinhardt(3)
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.21win prob +28 ptsVideo
    4-3
    5:35
  4. FLA
    S. Vilmanis(1)EN
    U. Balinskis (1)
    snapxG 0.71win prob +5 ptsVideo
    5-3
    19:36

Penalties

FLA 10 PIM·TBL 4 PIM

1st

  • 0:54FLASam Lafferty · Holdingdrawn by Ilya Mikheyev2 min
  • 19:58FLABokondji Imama · Hookingdrawn by Scott Sabourin2 min

2nd

  • 14:39FLAMatvei Shuravin · Holdingdrawn by Nikita Kucherov2 min
  • 14:44FLAUvis Balinskis · High stickingdrawn by Brayden Point2 min
  • 19:50TBLNikita Kucherov · Holding the stickdrawn by Garnet Hathaway2 min

3rd

  • 13:16FLAJohn Beecher · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Andrei Vasilevskiy2 min
  • 13:16TBLJakob Pelletier · Roughingdrawn by John Beecher2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalFLA goalFinal: TBL 0%

Biggest swing: Cole Reinhardt, 3rd 5:35 — FLA 48% → 76%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Harkins · Goal · xG 0.37B. Point · On goal · xG 0.29C. Geekie · Goal · xG 0.26B. Point · On goal · xG 0.23J. Guentzel · Missed · xG 0.21J. Guentzel · Missed · xG 0.17J. Harkins · On goal · xG 0.16J. Guentzel · Missed · xG 0.15J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.12J. Harkins · Goal · xG 0.11J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.10B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.09B. Point · Missed · xG 0.09J. Carlson · Missed · xG 0.09J. Carlson · Missed · xG 0.09J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.09J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.09J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.08B. Hagel · Missed · xG 0.08J. Harkins · On goal · xG 0.08B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.07E. Cernak · Missed · xG 0.07B. Hagel · Missed · xG 0.06J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.05E. Cernak · Missed · xG 0.05B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.05J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.04V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.04A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.04V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.03V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.03C. Geekie · On goal · xG 0.03C. Geekie · On goal · xG 0.03V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.03N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.03R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.02E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.02N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.02J. Harkins · Missed · xG 0.01J. Carlson · Missed · xG 0.01N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.01R. McDonagh · Missed · xG 0.01E. Cernak · Missed · xG 0.01R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.01J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.01J. Harkins · Missed · xG 0.01
TBL3 G · 3.7 xG · 46 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

FLAvsTBL
2.74 G
All situations
3 G3.7
1.64 G
Even strength
3 G1.8
0.20 G
Power play
0 G1.9
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 78 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
FLA23%77%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.95 – 3.63

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

FLAvsTBL
25
Shots on goal
28
41%
Faceoffs
59%
0/1
Power play
0/4
10
Penalty minutes
4
41
Hits
26
18
Blocked shots
6
13
Giveaways
16
6
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Florida Panthers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
36A. PetrovicD011+320.05310—24:03
26U. BalinskisD011+110.03232—22:32
51M. AlscherD000+130.09420—21:15
73D. SebrangoD011+320.04110—21:11
18S. LaffertyC011+110.224125018:36
17J. BeecherC000+110.194123616:49
20L. EllerC000000.002002916:31
96M. HovorkaD011-220.02010—16:13
95S. VilmanisL101031.10010—15:32
76M. ShuravinD000-210.09012—15:20
11N. BastianR000020.05700—14:10
29C. ReinhardtL112+120.29100—13:50
79C. SchwindtR000-100.181205013:46
14B. ImamaL101+110.08602—13:13
85H. St. MartinL101+110.08010—12:57
21G. HathawayR000000.003005012:22
28A. CrookshankC000020.13210—11:07
97K. SchwindtL112+210.061207110:33
Florida Panthers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31C. Black16142.8751.89-0.1140:00
30K. Gerasimyuk(W)12111.9171.83+0.8320:00

Season series

first meeting

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).