Oilers at Jets 2-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Edmonton Oilers

▸2

Winnipeg Jets

Final/OTTV Oilers+, TSN3·Canada Life Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Edmonton Oilers beat the Winnipeg Jets 2-1 in overtime, Viljami Marjala scoring at 1:26. The Jets scored first; the Oilers answered. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Viljami Marjala's goal at 1:26 of overtime, which took the Oilers' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals were close — EDM 1.7, WPG 1.5; shots on goal were EDM 23, WPG 18. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Oilers win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Devon Levi stopped 12 of 13 (.923); Domenic DiVincentiis stopped 21 of 23 (.913).

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
EDM	16	011	05	11	223
WPG	16	07	05	00	118

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

A. Iafallo(1)
N. Niederreiter (1)
snapxG 0.23win prob +14 ptsVideo
0-1
13:04
A. Leppanen(1)
R. Nugent-Hopkins (1)
wristxG 0.02win prob +14 ptsVideo
1-1
15:50

Overtime

V. Marjala(1)
Z. Hyman (1)
wristxG 0.12win prob +51 ptsVideo
2-1
1:26

Penalties

6 PIM·

6 PIM

1st

1:32Viljami Marjala · High stickingdrawn by Isaak Phillips2 min
5:03Danil Zhilkin · Slashingdrawn by Owen Michaels2 min

2nd

0:16Zach Hyman · Holdingdrawn by Dylan Samberg2 min
13:07Colby Barlow · Holding the stickdrawn by Jake Walman2 min
18:48Joshua Brown · Cross checkingdrawn by Nikita Chibrikov2 min

3rd

2:25Dylan Samberg · High stickingdrawn by Zach Hyman2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: WPG

Biggest swing: Viljami Marjala, OT 1:26 — EDM 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 1.5 xG · 31 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 1.7 xG · 35 att WPG

1 G · 1.5 xG · 31 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

1.72 G
All situations: 1 G1.5; 1.42 G
Even strength: 1 G1.3; 0.20 G
Power play: 0 G0.1; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 66 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

54%46%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.64 – 1.46

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

23
Shots on goal: 18; 35%
Faceoffs: 65%; 0/3
Power play: 0/3; 6
Penalty minutes: 6; 20
Hits: 23; 20
Blocked shots: 13; 16
Giveaways: 17; 6
Takeaways: 3

Box score

every player line

Edmonton Oilers skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
5C. MurphyD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.08	2	5	0	—	23:09
96J. WalmanD	0	0	0	0	1	0.14	1	4	0	—	22:34
85S. MukhamadullinD	0	0	0	-1	2	0.02	0	3	0	—	21:25
93R. Nugent-HopkinsC	0	1	1	+1	1	0.06	1	0	0	48	21:02
42K. KapanenR	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	1	1	0	—	20:31
18Z. HymanL	0	1	1	+2	3	0.30	0	0	2	—	18:49
44J. BrownD	0	0	0	-1	1	0.00	3	1	2	—	17:43
73D. CarfagnaD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.02	2	1	0	—	17:12
53I. HowardL	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	0	1	0	—	17:07
37A. LeppanenD	1	0	1	+1	2	0.10	1	1	0	—	16:30
10T. FredericC	0	0	0	0	2	0.25	4	1	0	0	16:10
57V. MarjalaL	1	0	1	+1	2	0.37	0	0	2	—	14:58
81J. SamanskiC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	50	14:04
43O. MichaelsR	0	0	0	-1	1	0.00	1	2	0	22	13:26
23Q. HutsonR	0	0	0	0	2	0.22	0	0	0	—	12:58
38A. RatyR	0	0	0	-1	1	0.01	1	0	0	—	10:42
86S. TassyR	0	0	0	-1	1	0.02	2	0	0	50	10:01
36E. TralmaksR	0	0	0	0	1	0.08	1	0	0	100	09:57

Edmonton Oilers goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
27D. Levi	13	12	1	.923	0.98	-0.02	40:00
32C. Ungar(W)	5	5	0	1.000	0.51	+0.51	21:26

Season series

first meeting

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Edmonton Oilers at Winnipeg Jets

1st period

Overtime

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score