Flames at Islanders 2-3 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Calgary Flames

New York Islanders

▸3

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Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Calgary Flames 3-2. The Islanders scored first and never trailed. The Islanders led 3-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Simon Holmstrom's goal at 16:35 of the first period, which took the Islanders' chances from 68% to 82%. Expected goals were close — CGY 2.6, NYI 2.8; shots on goal were CGY 32, NYI 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Islanders win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Dustin Wolf stopped 17 of 17 (1.000), 1.2 goals saved above expected; David Rittich stopped 30 of 32 (.938), 0.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Simon Holmstrom (2 G), 2. Casey Cizikas (1 G), 3. Blake Coleman (1 G).

Three stars

★
S. Holmstrom2 G
★★
C. Cizikas1 G
★★★
B. Coleman1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CGY	08	07	217	232
NYI	310	08	09	327

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

C. Cizikas(8)
K. MacLean (5)
snapxG 0.28win prob +13 ptsVideo
0-1
10:06
S. Holmstrom(15)
B. Schenn (18), A. Duclair (15)
snapxG 0.24win prob +15 ptsVideo
0-2
16:35
S. Holmstrom(16)SHG
J. Pageau (16)
snapxG 0.30win prob +10 ptsVideo
0-3
19:35

3rd period

M. Backlund(15)
O. Maatta (5), K. Bahl (12)
tip-inxG 0.06win prob +6 ptsVideo
1-3
2:17
B. Coleman(16)
Y. Kuznetsov (8)
snapxG 0.32win prob +13 ptsVideo
2-3
8:28

Penalties

2 PIM·

4 PIM

1st

3:19Adam Klapka · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by David Rittich2 min
14:07Carson Soucy · Hookingdrawn by Morgan Frost2 min
18:04Calum Ritchie · Trippingdrawn by Matvei Gridin2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: NYI

100%

Biggest swing: Simon Holmstrom, 1st 16:35 — NYI 68% → 82%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

3 G · 2.8 xG · 38 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 2.6 xG · 44 att NYI

3 G · 2.8 xG · 38 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.62 G
All situations: 3 G2.8; 1.82 G
Even strength: 2 G2.2; 0.70 G
Power play: 0 G0.0; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 1 G0.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 82 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

47%53%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.56 – 2.74

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

32
Shots on goal: 27; 42%
Faceoffs: 58%; 0/2
Power play: 0/1; 2
Penalty minutes: 4; 9
Hits: 22; 10
Blocked shots: 18; 17
Giveaways: 16; 6
Takeaways: 7

Box score

every player line

Calgary Flames skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
7K. BahlD	0	1	1	-1	0	0.00	0	0	0	—	23:13
3O. MaattaD	0	1	1	-1	2	0.07	0	0	0	—	21:00
28Z. WhitecloudD	0	0	0	+1	3	0.16	1	3	0	—	19:51
20B. ColemanL	1	0	1	+2	4	0.56	1	0	0	—	19:23
19Z. ParekhD	0	0	0	0	2	0.12	1	1	0	—	19:14
22R. StromeC	0	0	0	0	1	0.06	0	1	0	18	18:03
16M. FrostC	0	0	0	-1	2	0.18	0	2	0	55	17:54
27M. CoronatoR	0	0	0	-1	1	0.27	1	0	0	100	17:47
37Y. KuznetsovD	0	1	1	+1	2	0.10	2	0	0	—	17:40
95V. OlofssonL	0	0	0	-1	3	0.26	0	2	0	—	17:30
11M. BacklundC	1	0	1	0	4	0.09	0	0	0	43	17:07
86J. FarabeeL	0	0	0	+1	1	0.01	0	0	0	—	16:45
17Y. SharangovichC	0	0	0	-1	4	0.56	1	0	0	75	16:30
92M. GridinR	0	0	0	-1	2	0.11	0	0	0	—	16:23
44J. HanleyD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	—	13:58
47C. ZaryC	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	0	0	0	10:41
18J. BeecherC	0	0	0	-1	1	0.03	1	0	0	25	09:44
43A. KlapkaR	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	1	2	—	08:05

Calgary Flames goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
32D. Wolf	17	17	0	1.000	1.24	+1.24	38:29
1D. Cooley(L)	10	7	3	.700	1.53	-1.47	18:43

Season series

Tied 1-1

Jan 172@4Final
Mar 142@3this game

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Calgary Flames at New York Islanders

1st period

3rd period

1st

Box score