Red Wings at Avalanche 2-0 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Detroit Red Wings

▸2

Colorado Avalanche

FinalTV FDSNDET, ALT·Ball Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Detroit Red Wings beat the Colorado Avalanche 2-0. The Red Wings scored first and never trailed. The Red Wings led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Marco Kasper's goal at 0:33 of the first period, which took the Red Wings' chances from 46% to 57%. Expected goals favored the Red Wings, 3.3 to 2.3; shots on goal were DET 25, COL 21. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Red Wings win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. John Gibson stopped 21 of 21 (1.000), 2.3 goals saved above expected; Mackenzie Blackwood stopped 23 of 24 (.958), 1.4 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. John Gibson (21 saves, 1.000), 2. Lucas Raymond (1 G, 1 A), 3. Marco Kasper (1 G).

Three stars

★
J. Gibson21 saves, 1.000
★★
L. Raymond1 G, 1 A
★★★
M. Kasper1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DET	18	012	15	225
COL	08	04	09	021

Scoring

2 goals

1st period

M. Kasper(6)
L. Raymond (41), D. Larkin (24)
tip-inxG 0.30win prob +11 ptsVideo
1-0
0:33

3rd period

L. Raymond(19)EN
D. Larkin (25)
wristxG 0.95win prob +3 ptsVideo
2-0
19:29

Penalties

4 PIM·

14 PIM

1st

17:38Mason Appleton · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

2nd

6:54Sam Malinski · Trippingdrawn by Michael Rasmussen2 min
15:09Taylor Makar · Hookingdrawn by Axel Sandin-Pellikka2 min

3rd

2:22Albert Johansson · Trippingdrawn by Joel Kiviranta2 min
19:29Valeri Nichushkin · Misconduct10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: COL

Biggest swing: Marco Kasper, 1st 0:33 — DET 46% → 57%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

0 G · 2.3 xG · 37 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 3.3 xG · 42 att COL

0 G · 2.3 xG · 37 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

3.31 G
All situations: 0 G2.3; 1.91 G
Even strength: 0 G2.0; 0.40 G
Power play: 0 G0.3; 0.10 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 79 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

51%49%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.33 – 2.29

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

25
Shots on goal: 21; 48%
Faceoffs: 52%; 0/2
Power play: 0/2; 4
Penalty minutes: 14; 27
Hits: 29; 17
Blocked shots: 15; 10
Giveaways: 16; 5
Takeaways: 2

Box score

every player line

Detroit Red Wings skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
53M. SeiderD	0	0	0	+2	3	0.11	4	3	0	—	27:34
8B. ChiarotD	0	0	0	+1	2	0.09	4	3	0	—	22:27
25J. Bernard-DockerD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.01	2	1	0	—	21:41
71D. LarkinC	0	2	2	+2	1	0.20	2	1	0	33	21:25
20A. JohanssonD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	2	2	—	18:21
23L. RaymondL	1	1	2	+2	3	1.05	2	0	0	—	17:31
92M. KasperC	1	0	1	+1	2	0.44	3	1	0	0	17:14
18A. CoppC	0	0	0	0	1	0.27	0	1	0	73	17:13
93A. DeBrincatR	0	0	0	0	1	0.17	0	0	0	—	16:40
37J. CompherL	0	0	0	+1	2	0.22	0	0	0	60	16:14
22M. AppletonC	0	0	0	0	0	0.09	3	1	2	0	14:39
44A. Sandin-PellikkaD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	—	14:20
52T. HamonicD	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	2	3	0	—	13:50
88P. KaneR	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	0	0	0	—	13:45
58E. FinnieC	0	0	0	0	4	0.23	2	0	0	0	13:04
27M. RasmussenC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	1	0	0	11:31
21J. van RiemsdykL	0	0	0	0	3	0.42	0	0	0	—	10:29
85E. SoderblomL	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	0	0	0	—	08:02

Detroit Red Wings goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
36J. Gibson(W)	21	21	0	1.000	2.29	+2.29	60:00

Season series

Tied 1-1

Jan 315@0Final
Feb 22@0this game

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Detroit Red Wings at Colorado Avalanche

1st period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score