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Avalanche at Islanders
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at New York Islanders

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
3
New York Islanders
▸6
FinalTV ALT, MSGSN·UBS Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Colorado Avalanche 6-3. The Islanders scored first and never trailed. The Islanders led 5-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Anders Lee's goal at 18:20 of the first period, which took the Islanders' chances from 68% to 83%. Expected goals favored the Islanders, 4.0 to 3.3; shots on goal were COL 38, NYI 42. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Islanders win a replay of these chances 52% of the time. Mackenzie Blackwood stopped 36 of 41 (.878), 1.5 goals below expected; Ilya Sorokin stopped 35 of 38 (.921). Three stars: 1. Mathew Barzal (1 G, 2 A), 2. Anders Lee (1 G, 1 A), 3. Bo Horvat (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NYI
    M. Barzal1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    NYI
    A. Lee1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    NYI
    B. Horvat1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL01927112338
NYINYI216316110642

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. NYI
    K. MacLean(1)
    R. Pulock (12), M. Gatcomb (1)
    snapxG 0.22win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    5:56
  2. NYI
    A. Lee(6)
    M. Barzal (12)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +15 ptsVideo
    0-2
    18:20

2nd period

  1. NYI
    B. Horvat(17)
    M. Schaefer (12), R. Pulock (13)
    snapxG 0.22win prob +9 ptsVideo
    0-3
    6:58
  2. NYI
    A. Pelech(1)
    M. Barzal (13), A. Lee (9)
    snapxG 0.01win prob +4 ptsVideo
    0-4
    7:59
  3. COL
    V. Nichushkin(6)
    S. Malinski (12), B. Nelson (9)
    deflectedxG 0.08win prob +4 ptsVideo
    1-4
    8:39
  4. COL
    M. Necas(14)
    V. Olofsson (11), B. Burns (10)
    wristxG 0.21win prob +8 ptsVideo
    2-4
    10:04
  5. NYI
    M. Barzal(8)PPG
    M. Shabanov (6), B. Horvat (12)
    backhandxG 0.09win prob +5 ptsVideo
    2-5
    18:46

3rd period

  1. COL
    A. Lehkonen(10)
    C. Makar (24), M. Necas (21)
    slapxG 0.09win prob +6 ptsVideo
    3-5
    1:27
  2. NYI
    C. Cizikas(2)EN
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.47win prob +1 ptsVideo
    3-6
    18:45

Penalties

COL 10 PIM·NYI 6 PIM

1st

  • 5:56COLserved by Z. Bardakov · Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
  • 12:35COLMartin Necas · Holdingdrawn by Matthew Schaefer2 min

2nd

  • 1:16COLArtturi Lehkonen · Cross checkingdrawn by Matthew Schaefer2 min
  • 1:47NYIMathew Barzal · Trippingdrawn by Parker Kelly2 min
  • 18:12COLCale Makar · Trippingdrawn by Max Shabanov2 min

3rd

  • 8:11NYIMatthew Schaefer · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 16:42NYIScott Mayfield · Trippingdrawn by Martin Necas2 min
  • 20:00COLJosh Manson · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Scott Mayfield2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NYI goalCOL goalFinal: NYI 100%

Biggest swing: Anders Lee, 1st 18:20 — NYI 68% → 83%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Cizikas · Goal · xG 0.47B. Horvat · Goal · xG 0.22K. MacLean · Goal · xG 0.22K. MacLean · On goal · xG 0.19M. Tsyplakov · Missed · xG 0.19A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.18A. Lee · Missed · xG 0.17A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.15A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.14A. Lee · Goal · xG 0.13B. Horvat · On goal · xG 0.13A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.13S. Holmstrom · On goal · xG 0.12M. Schaefer · Missed · xG 0.12A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.12M. Schaefer · On goal · xG 0.11A. Lee · Missed · xG 0.09M. Barzal · Goal · xG 0.09M. Shabanov · Missed · xG 0.09A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.08E. Heineman · On goal · xG 0.08B. Horvat · On goal · xG 0.07R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.06A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.06B. Horvat · On goal · xG 0.05M. Schaefer · On goal · xG 0.05A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.05M. Shabanov · On goal · xG 0.05E. Heineman · On goal · xG 0.04R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.04A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.03E. Heineman · Missed · xG 0.03B. Horvat · Missed · xG 0.03A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.02S. Mayfield · Missed · xG 0.02M. Tsyplakov · On goal · xG 0.02M. Schaefer · On goal · xG 0.02A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.02K. MacLean · On goal · xG 0.02B. Horvat · On goal · xG 0.01A. Pelech · Goal · xG 0.01T. DeAngelo · On goal · xG 0.01M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.01A. Pelech · On goal · xG 0.01B. Horvat · On goal · xG 0.01S. Mayfield · On goal · xG 0.01M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.01M. Shabanov · On goal · xG 0.01S. Mayfield · Missed · xG 0.00A. Pelech · Missed · xG 0.00E. Heineman · On goal · xG 0.00M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.00
NYI6 G · 4.0 xG · 52 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsNYI
3.33 G
All situations
5 G4.0
2.93 G
Even strength
4 G2.4
0.40 G
Power play
1 G0.9
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 105 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL48%52%NYI

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.18 – 3.30

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsNYI
38
Shots on goal
42
55%
Faceoffs
45%
0/3
Power play
1/4
10
Penalty minutes
6
26
Hits
18
12
Blocked shots
20
16
Giveaways
10
5
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD011-220.26122—23:09
29N. MacKinnonC000060.540002022:10
7D. ToewsD000030.03010—21:17
88M. NecasC112030.40412020:04
62A. LehkonenL101030.52202—19:31
11B. NelsonC011-210.040207118:42
84B. BurnsD011020.05110—18:25
42J. MansonD000040.24502—18:02
49S. GirardD000-110.09120—17:58
70S. MalinskiD011040.11200—16:53
13V. NichushkinR101-130.21200—16:23
92G. LandeskogL000-120.221108316:06
18J. DruryC000000.000006215:09
17P. KellyC000-110.0211010013:07
95V. OlofssonL011+100.09000—12:49
20R. ColtonC000-210.19400012:34
94J. KivirantaL000-120.2710010008:56
93Z. BardakovC000-100.001105004:34
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
39M. Blackwood(L)41365.8783.53-1.4757:37

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).