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Sabres at Penguins
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Pittsburgh Penguins

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
2
Pittsburgh Penguins
▸4
FinalTV SN-PIT, MSG-B·PPG Paints Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Pittsburgh Penguins beat the Buffalo Sabres 4-2. The Penguins scored first and never trailed. The Penguins led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Bryan Rust's goal at 7:51 of the third period, which took the Penguins' chances from 52% to 81%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 2.9 to 2.3; shots on goal were BUF 31, PIT 19. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 77% of the time. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 15 of 18 (.833), 1.6 goals below expected; Tristan Jarry stopped 29 of 31 (.935), 0.9 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Kevin Hayes (1 G), 2. Jack Quinn (1 G, 1 A), 3. Tristan Jarry (29 saves, .935).

Three stars

  1. ★
    PIT
    K. Hayes1 G
  2. ★★
    BUF
    J. Quinn1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    PIT
    T. Jarry29 saves, .935

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF0408219231
PITPIT130838419

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. PIT
    M. Dumba(1)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.04win prob +14 ptsVideo
    0-1
    17:09

3rd period

  1. BUF
    J. Zucker(6)
    J. Quinn (7), R. McLeod (9)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +28 ptsVideo
    1-1
    7:20
  2. PIT
    B. Rust(6)
    R. Shea (7)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +29 ptsVideo
    1-2
    7:51
  3. PIT
    K. Hayes(1)
    E. Karlsson (13), P. Wotherspoon (6)
    tip-inxG 0.06win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-3
    12:34
  4. BUF
    J. Quinn(6)
    J. Zucker (7), M. Samuelsson (7)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +8 ptsVideo
    2-3
    15:42
  5. PIT
    C. Dewar(5)EN
    D. Heinen (1), R. Shea (8)
    wristxG 0.95win prob +2 ptsVideo
    2-4
    19:02

Penalties

BUF 2 PIM·PIT 0 PIM

1st

  • 8:57BUFConor Timmins · Trippingdrawn by Sidney Crosby2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
PIT goalBUF goalFinal: PIT 100%

Biggest swing: Bryan Rust, 3rd 7:51 — PIT 52% → 81%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Dewar · Goal · xG 0.95K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.14J. Koppanen · On goal · xG 0.13S. Crosby · On goal · xG 0.11K. Hayes · Missed · xG 0.07B. Rust · Missed · xG 0.07A. Mantha · On goal · xG 0.07B. Rust · Goal · xG 0.06E. Malkin · On goal · xG 0.06D. Heinen · On goal · xG 0.06K. Hayes · Goal · xG 0.06K. Hayes · On goal · xG 0.05A. Mantha · Missed · xG 0.05D. Heinen · Missed · xG 0.05E. Karlsson · Missed · xG 0.04M. Dumba · Goal · xG 0.04K. Hayes · On goal · xG 0.04T. Broz · On goal · xG 0.04T. Broz · On goal · xG 0.03S. Crosby · Missed · xG 0.02J. Koppanen · On goal · xG 0.02M. Dumba · Missed · xG 0.02S. Crosby · On goal · xG 0.02K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.02R. Shea · Missed · xG 0.02B. Rust · Missed · xG 0.02R. Shea · Missed · xG 0.01P. Wotherspoon · Missed · xG 0.01S. Crosby · On goal · xG 0.01S. Crosby · On goal · xG 0.00
PIT4 G · 2.3 xG · 30 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsPIT
2.92 G
All situations
3 G2.3
2.52 G
Even strength
3 G1.2
0.40 G
Power play
0 G0.2
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 79 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF77%23%PIT

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.85 – 1.35

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsPIT
31
Shots on goal
19
42%
Faceoffs
58%
0/0
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
0
21
Hits
17
15
Blocked shots
10
15
Giveaways
14
8
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
23M. SamuelssonD011+150.32140—27:47
26R. DahlinD000050.19110—25:06
4B. ByramD000-120.02000—20:13
25O. PowerD000-110.01200—19:25
22J. QuinnR112+120.44010—18:39
72T. ThompsonC000-320.291003818:33
17J. ZuckerL112+140.51000—18:28
71R. McLeodC011+110.111004418:01
89A. TuchR000-220.3941010017:40
6Z. BensonL000-110.05000—16:09
91J. DoanR000-110.12010—16:02
48T. KozakC000-100.002405715:22
21C. TimminsD000-110.08022—14:06
86N. OstlundC000-110.230002513:27
78J. BrysonD000-100.00100—12:34
29B. MalenstynL000-110.01410—09:44
19P. KrebsC000000.023002909:10
44J. DunneC000-120.14100008:11
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1U. Luukkonen(L)18153.8331.35-1.6559:23

Season series

PIT leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).