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Lightning at Mammoth
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Utah Mammoth

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸4
Utah Mammoth
2
FinalTV NHLN, The Spot·Delta Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Utah Mammoth 4-2. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Lightning led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jake Guentzel's goal at 12:06 of the third period, which took the Lightning's chances from 48% to 83%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 3.8 to 2.7; shots on goal were TBL 26, UTA 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Mammoth win a replay of these chances 65% of the time. Jonas Johansson stopped 25 of 27 (.926), 0.7 goals saved above expected; Karel Vejmelka stopped 22 of 25 (.880), 1.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Jake Guentzel (1 G, 1 A), 2. Kailer Yamamoto (1 G), 3. Anthony Cirelli (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    J. Guentzel1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    UTA
    K. Yamamoto1 G
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    A. Cirelli1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL1911027426
UTAUTA1609112227

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. UTA
    L. Crouse(2)
    I. Cole (4)
    snapxG 0.18win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    5:55
  2. TBL
    Y. Gourde(3)
    E. Lilleberg (1), Z. Girgensons (1)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-1
    15:17

2nd period

  1. TBL
    A. Cirelli(7)
    J. Guentzel (7), V. Hedman (9)
    slapxG 0.05win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-1
    2:47

3rd period

  1. UTA
    K. Yamamoto(1)
    I. Cole (5)
    snapxG 0.23win prob +25 ptsVideo
    2-2
    2:21
  2. TBL
    J. Guentzel(5)
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.14win prob +35 ptsVideo
    3-2
    12:06
  3. TBL
    B. Hagel(4)EN
    R. McDonagh (3)
    wristxG 0.87win prob +3 ptsVideo
    4-2
    19:44

Penalties

TBL 8 PIM·UTA 16 PIM

1st

  • 9:21UTAKailer Yamamoto · Hookingdrawn by Pontus Holmberg2 min
  • 13:01TBLserved by G. Goncalves · Too many men on the ice2 min

2nd

  • 7:29TBLErik Cernak · Holdingdrawn by Kailer Yamamoto2 min
  • 8:56UTALogan Cooley · Holdingdrawn by Jake Guentzel2 min
  • 13:02TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous · Trippingdrawn by Kailer Yamamoto2 min
  • 19:58UTAJack McBain · Slashingdrawn by Jonas Johansson2 min
  • 19:58TBLAnthony Cirelli · Roughingdrawn by Jack McBain2 min

3rd

  • 17:01UTAMichael Carcone · Misconduct10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
UTA goalTBL goalFinal: UTA 0%

Biggest swing: Jake Guentzel, 3rd 12:06 — TBL 48% → 83%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
K. Yamamoto · Goal · xG 0.23J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.19L. Crouse · Goal · xG 0.18K. Yamamoto · On goal · xG 0.17C. Keller · On goal · xG 0.17C. Keller · On goal · xG 0.16C. Keller · On goal · xG 0.13J. McBain · Missed · xG 0.12M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.12B. Tanev · On goal · xG 0.11K. Yamamoto · On goal · xG 0.11K. Yamamoto · On goal · xG 0.10D. Guenther · On goal · xG 0.09D. Guenther · Missed · xG 0.08L. Cooley · Missed · xG 0.07M. Carcone · On goal · xG 0.06M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.06J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.05O. Maatta · Missed · xG 0.05D. Guenther · Missed · xG 0.05K. Stenlund · Missed · xG 0.05L. Cooley · On goal · xG 0.04N. Schmidt · On goal · xG 0.04J. Marino · On goal · xG 0.03J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.03N. Schmidt · On goal · xG 0.03O. Maatta · On goal · xG 0.02J. Marino · On goal · xG 0.02C. Keller · Missed · xG 0.02K. Yamamoto · Missed · xG 0.02N. Schmaltz · Missed · xG 0.02M. Carcone · On goal · xG 0.01N. Schmidt · Missed · xG 0.01D. Simashev · Missed · xG 0.01L. Crouse · On goal · xG 0.01L. Crouse · On goal · xG 0.01N. Schmidt · On goal · xG 0.00O. Maatta · On goal · xG 0.00
UTA2 G · 2.7 xG · 38 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsUTA
3.83 G
All situations
2 G2.7
1.43 G
Even strength
2 G2.0
0.60 G
Power play
0 G0.7
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 76 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL35%65%UTA

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.87 – 2.66

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsUTA
26
Shots on goal
27
44%
Faceoffs
56%
0/2
Power play
0/3
8
Penalty minutes
16
16
Hits
19
14
Blocked shots
13
14
Giveaways
15
3
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
38B. HagelL101+141.61100—23:08
27R. McDonaghD011+120.13110—21:55
90J. MoserD000+130.06110—21:02
81E. CernakD000+120.04042—20:27
86N. KucherovR000+110.48000—20:19
77V. HedmanD011010.07020—20:08
78E. LillebergD011+100.00130—19:23
37Y. GourdeC101+140.231004017:33
21B. PointC000030.730105616:52
28Z. GirgensonsC011+110.03310016:21
71A. CirelliC101+210.050123516:19
59J. GuentzelC112+110.140005014:56
51C. D'AstousD000000.00002—14:30
29P. HolmbergR000000.00100—14:08
17D. JamesC000-120.124005711:28
22O. BjorkstrandR000-100.01100—10:36
93G. GoncalvesC000010.10100009:54
42C. DouglasC000+100.00100003:01
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31J. Johansson(W)27252.9262.68+0.6860:00

Season series

TBL leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).