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Hurricanes at Stars
NHL

Carolina Hurricanes at Dallas Stars

NHL scoreboard
Carolina Hurricanes
2
Dallas Stars
▸3
FinalTV FDSNSO, Victory+·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Carolina Hurricanes 3-2. The Stars came back from two goals down. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Miro Heiskanen's goal at 11:18 of the third period, which took the Stars' chances from 58% to 88%. Expected goals favored the Stars, 3.9 to 2.6; shots on goal were CAR 28, DAL 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 67% of the time. Brandon Bussi stopped 31 of 34 (.912), 0.8 goals saved above expected; Jake Oettinger stopped 26 of 28 (.929), 0.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Miro Heiskanen (2 G), 2. Sam Steel (1 G), 3. Sebastian Aho (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DAL
    M. Heiskanen2 G
  2. ★★
    DAL
    S. Steel1 G
  3. ★★★
    CAR
    S. Aho1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CARCAR2701209228
DALDAL07215112334

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. CAR
    J. Blake(2)
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.16win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-0
    4:14
  2. CAR
    S. Aho(4)
    N. Ehlers (3)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-0
    19:49

2nd period

  1. DAL
    M. Heiskanen(1)
    E. Lindell (3)
    snapxG 0.03win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-1
    1:04
  2. DAL
    S. Steel(1)PPG
    T. Harley (6), M. Rantanen (6)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +14 ptsVideo
    2-2
    5:41

3rd period

  1. DAL
    M. Heiskanen(2)PPG
    W. Johnston (4), M. Rantanen (7)
    snapxG 0.08win prob +30 ptsVideo
    2-3
    11:18

Penalties

CAR 8 PIM·DAL 6 PIM

1st

  • 4:26CARTaylor Hall · Trippingdrawn by Wyatt Johnston2 min
  • 10:17DALMikko Rantanen · High stickingdrawn by Sean Walker2 min

2nd

  • 4:06CARJoel Nystrom · Holdingdrawn by Colin Blackwell2 min
  • 16:40DALEsa Lindell · Trippingdrawn by Logan Stankoven2 min

3rd

  • 9:31DALNathan Bastian · Slashingdrawn by Sebastian Aho2 min
  • 9:55CARTaylor Hall · Chargingdrawn by Roope Hintz2 min
  • 11:01CARSeth Jarvis · Holdingdrawn by Mavrik Bourque2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DAL goalCAR goalFinal: DAL 100%

Biggest swing: Miro Heiskanen, 3rd 11:18 — DAL 58% → 88%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.34R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.23J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.21W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.20T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.19J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.16J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.16M. Bourque · On goal · xG 0.15R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.15M. Bourque · On goal · xG 0.15W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.13R. Hintz · Missed · xG 0.12M. Bourque · On goal · xG 0.12S. Steel · On goal · xG 0.11A. Erne · Missed · xG 0.11J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.11R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.11T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.10M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.10J. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.08M. Heiskanen · Goal · xG 0.08T. Harley · On goal · xG 0.08W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.07S. Steel · Goal · xG 0.07J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.07S. Steel · Missed · xG 0.06M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.05J. Hryckowian · On goal · xG 0.05E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.05J. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.05R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.04M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.04M. Heiskanen · Goal · xG 0.03M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.02M. Bourque · On goal · xG 0.02C. Blackwell · On goal · xG 0.02I. Lyubushkin · On goal · xG 0.02R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.02N. Bastian · On goal · xG 0.01W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.01A. Petrovic · On goal · xG 0.01
DAL3 G · 3.9 xG · 41 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CARvsDAL
2.62 G
All situations
3 G3.9
1.82 G
Even strength
1 G2.6
0.80 G
Power play
2 G1.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 92 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CAR33%67%DAL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.54 – 3.55

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CARvsDAL
28
Shots on goal
34
53%
Faceoffs
47%
0/3
Power play
2/4
8
Penalty minutes
6
29
Hits
30
9
Blocked shots
30
13
Giveaways
18
3
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Carolina Hurricanes skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
26S. WalkerD000030.08510—25:46
21A. NikishinD000010.03310—22:29
20S. AhoC101030.181004122:08
5J. ChatfieldD000020.07300—21:16
24S. JarvisR000020.214025018:26
64J. NystromD000+110.05112—17:57
53J. BlakeR101+130.40000—16:44
27N. EhlersL011000.011005016:25
22L. StankovenC000+130.420105316:24
37A. SvechnikovR000010.12000—15:15
6M. ReillyD000+110.08000—15:00
11J. StaalC000000.070006714:44
48J. MartinookL000000.07410—14:12
71T. HallL000+120.45204—14:10
29B. NadeauL000010.15120—12:39
77M. JankowskiL000020.081005011:16
82J. KotkaniemiC000010.042205010:05
62C. LegaultD000020.07100—09:58
Carolina Hurricanes goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
32B. Bussi(L)34313.9123.77+0.7758:08

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).