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Utah Hockey Club at Predators
NHL

Utah Mammoth at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Utah Mammoth
▸7
Nashville Predators
3
FinalTV FDSNSO, Utah16·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Utah Mammoth beat the Nashville Predators 7-3. The Predators scored first; the Utah Hockey Club answered. The Utah Hockey Club led 4-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Michael Bunting's goal at 14:20 of the second period, which took the Predators' chances from 15% to 32%. Expected goals favored the Utah Hockey Club, 4.2 to 3.2; shots on goal were UTA 36, NSH 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Utah Hockey Club win a replay of these chances 55% of the time. Matt Villalta stopped 28 of 31 (.903); Juuse Saros stopped 29 of 35 (.829), 2.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Clayton Keller (2 G, 2 A), 2. Logan Cooley (1 G, 2 A), 3. Ryan O'Reilly (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    UTA
    C. Keller2 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    UTA
    L. Cooley1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    R. O'Reilly1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
UTAUTA211212313736
NSHNSH1152709331

Scoring

10 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    R. O'Reilly(20)PPG
    F. Forsberg (43)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    6:10
  2. UTA
    M. Kesselring(7)
    I. Cole (16), A. Kerfoot (15)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-1
    12:30
  3. UTA
    N. Bjugstad(8)
    A. Kerfoot (16), K. Stenlund (14)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-1
    18:21

2nd period

  1. UTA
    L. Cooley(25)
    C. Keller (59)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +17 ptsVideo
    3-1
    3:03
  2. UTA
    N. Schmaltz(20)PPG
    B. Hayton (26), C. Keller (60)
    snapxG 0.24win prob +9 ptsVideo
    4-1
    4:13
  3. NSH
    L. Evangelista(10)
    R. O'Reilly (30), B. Skjei (23)
    wristxG 0.23win prob +10 ptsVideo
    4-2
    11:01
  4. NSH
    M. Bunting(19)
    M. Wood (1), J. Barron (7)
    wristxG 0.43win prob +17 ptsVideo
    4-3
    14:20

3rd period

  1. UTA
    C. Keller(28)
    L. Cooley (39), M. Kesselring (22)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +13 ptsVideo
    5-3
    12:05
  2. UTA
    C. Keller(29)EN
    D. Guenther (33), L. Cooley (40)
    wristxG 0.69Video
    6-3
    18:13
  3. UTA
    K. Stenlund(14)
    O. Maatta (16), A. Kerfoot (17)
    tip-inxG 0.04Video
    7-3
    19:35

Penalties

UTA 6 PIM·NSH 8 PIM

1st

  • 3:49UTAKevin Stenlund · Slashingdrawn by Jakub Vrana2 min
  • 4:10UTABarrett Hayton · Trippingdrawn by Nick Blankenburg2 min
  • 18:38NSHMichael McCarron · Elbowingdrawn by Logan Cooley2 min

2nd

  • 3:03NSHserved by L. Evangelista · Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
  • 3:53NSHBrady Skjei · Trippingdrawn by Clayton Keller2 min
  • 5:55NSHNick Blankenburg · Hookingdrawn by Dylan Guenther2 min
  • 16:16UTAMichael Kesselring · Holdingdrawn by Filip Forsberg2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalUTA goalFinal: NSH 0%

Biggest swing: Michael Bunting, 2nd 14:20 — NSH 15% → 32%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Bunting · Goal · xG 0.43R. O'Reilly · Missed · xG 0.32S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.23L. Evangelista · Goal · xG 0.23F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.17J. Vrana · On goal · xG 0.14M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.13M. Wood · On goal · xG 0.13F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.12R. O'Reilly · Goal · xG 0.10C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.09R. O'Reilly · Missed · xG 0.09J. Vrana · Missed · xG 0.08J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.08R. O'Reilly · Missed · xG 0.07F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.06F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.06M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.06B. Skjei · Missed · xG 0.05S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.05M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.05C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.04M. McCarron · Missed · xG 0.04J. Oesterle · Missed · xG 0.04M. Bunting · Missed · xG 0.04L. Evangelista · On goal · xG 0.03J. Oesterle · Missed · xG 0.03Z. L'Heureux · On goal · xG 0.02N. Blankenburg · On goal · xG 0.02J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.02R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.02J. Oesterle · Missed · xG 0.02J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.02J. Oesterle · Missed · xG 0.02B. Skjei · On goal · xG 0.02M. Wood · Missed · xG 0.02J. Oesterle · On goal · xG 0.02M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.01N. Blankenburg · On goal · xG 0.01N. Blankenburg · On goal · xG 0.01L. Evangelista · On goal · xG 0.01L. Evangelista · Missed · xG 0.01L. Evangelista · On goal · xG 0.01M. Del Gaizo · On goal · xG 0.00N. Blankenburg · On goal · xG 0.00
NSH3 G · 3.2 xG · 45 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

UTAvsNSH
4.26 G
All situations
3 G3.2
2.95 G
Even strength
2 G1.9
0.61 G
Power play
1 G1.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 89 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
UTA55%45%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.46 – 3.15

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

UTAvsNSH
36
Shots on goal
31
50%
Faceoffs
50%
1/4
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
8
14
Hits
20
15
Blocked shots
12
15
Giveaways
25
2
Takeaways
2

Box score

every player line
Utah Mammoth skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
98M. SergachevD000+220.14110—25:24
50S. DurziD000+230.07110—20:37
28I. ColeD011+210.00020—20:29
11D. GuentherR011+220.57100—19:09
9C. KellerR224+251.17020—18:42
2O. MaattaD011020.04100—17:56
7M. KesselringD112+240.15012—17:43
27B. HaytonC011-200.190126717:23
8N. SchmaltzC101-130.510104016:10
92L. CooleyC123+310.120104615:56
22J. McBainC000000.003003314:34
82K. StenlundC112+320.301125614:12
15A. KerfootC033+300.000205014:09
57N. DeSimoneD000020.09110—13:32
17N. BjugstadC101+340.21200012:24
91J. DoanR000-110.33000—12:07
38L. O'BrienC000030.21210011:54
67L. CrouseL000010.0710010011:39
Utah Mammoth goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31M. Villalta(W)31283.9033.23+0.2360:00

Season series

NSH leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).