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Sabres at Blue Jackets
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Columbus Blue Jackets

FinalTV FDSNOH, MSG-B·Nationwide Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Columbus Blue Jackets beat the Buffalo Sabres 3-2. The Blue Jackets came back from two goals down. The Sabres led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Zachary Aston-Reese's goal at 4:00 of the third period, which took the Blue Jackets' chances from 26% to 52%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 4.2 to 3.0; shots on goal were BUF 41, CBJ 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 74% of the time. James Reimer stopped 27 of 30 (.900); Jet Greaves stopped 39 of 41 (.951), 2.2 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Jet Greaves (39 saves, .951), 2. Boone Jenner (1 G), 3. Rasmus Dahlin (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CBJ
    J. Greaves39 saves, .951
  2. ★★
    CBJ
    B. Jenner1 G
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    R. Dahlin1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF28018015241
CBJCBJ11207211330

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    R. McLeod (31), R. Dahlin (48)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +14 pts
    1-0
    11:54
  2. BUF
    wristxG 0.28win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-0
    14:39
  3. CBJ
    backhandxG 0.15win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-1
    19:51

3rd period

  1. CBJ
    wristxG 0.02win prob +26 ptsVideo
    2-2
    4:00
  2. CBJ
    B. Jenner(7)PPG
    wristxG 0.27win prob +23 ptsVideo
    2-3
    6:42

Penalties

BUF 2 PIM·CBJ 2 PIM

3rd

  • 5:23BUFSam Lafferty · Slashingdrawn by Zach Werenski2 min
  • 12:37CBJDenton Mateychuk · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CBJ goalBUF goalFinal: CBJ 100%

Biggest swing: Zachary Aston-Reese, 3rd 4:00 — CBJ 26% → 52%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Jenner · Missed · xG 0.46J. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.29B. Jenner · Goal · xG 0.27B. Jenner · On goal · xG 0.15J. van Riemsdyk · Goal · xG 0.15B. Jenner · On goal · xG 0.14K. Marchenko · On goal · xG 0.13K. Marchenko · On goal · xG 0.13B. Jenner · On goal · xG 0.12B. Jenner · Missed · xG 0.11B. Jenner · Missed · xG 0.10J. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.10Z. Aston-Reese · On goal · xG 0.10S. Kuraly · Missed · xG 0.08Z. Werenski · On goal · xG 0.07J. van Riemsdyk · Missed · xG 0.07A. Fantilli · On goal · xG 0.06C. Sillinger · On goal · xG 0.05C. Sillinger · Missed · xG 0.05S. Kuraly · On goal · xG 0.04J. Danforth · On goal · xG 0.04J. Danforth · Missed · xG 0.03K. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.03B. Jenner · On goal · xG 0.03Z. Werenski · Missed · xG 0.03J. Danforth · On goal · xG 0.02E. Gudbranson · On goal · xG 0.02K. Marchenko · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Aston-Reese · Goal · xG 0.02D. Voronkov · On goal · xG 0.02I. Provorov · Missed · xG 0.02K. Marchenko · On goal · xG 0.02D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.02D. Fabbro · Missed · xG 0.02K. Marchenko · On goal · xG 0.01E. Gudbranson · On goal · xG 0.01B. Jenner · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Werenski · Missed · xG 0.01D. Mateychuk · On goal · xG 0.01S. Monahan · Missed · xG 0.00E. Gudbranson · On goal · xG 0.00Z. Werenski · Missed · xG 0.00E. Gudbranson · On goal · xG 0.00
CBJ3 G · 3.0 xG · 43 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsCBJ
4.22 G
All situations
3 G3.0
3.52 G
Even strength
2 G1.9
0.70 G
Power play
1 G0.6
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 101 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF74%26%CBJ

Flurry-adjusted xG 4.06 – 2.51

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsCBJ
41
Shots on goal
30
50%
Faceoffs
50%
0/1
Power play
1/1
2
Penalty minutes
2
15
Hits
25
13
Blocked shots
17
16
Giveaways
11
3
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
26R. DahlinD112+250.34210—24:17
4B. ByramD000020.09100—20:52
23M. SamuelssonD000+200.00220—20:00
25O. PowerD000-210.00000—19:57
89A. TuchR000040.560105018:42
72T. ThompsonC000030.150106718:16
17J. ZuckerL000080.570107517:27
9Z. BensonL011050.95200—17:25
77J. PeterkaR101030.27010—16:56
71R. McLeodC011020.171004416:51
75C. CliftonD000000.00410—16:41
20J.KulichC011020.320105516:36
19P. KrebsC000010.061002516:11
24J. Bernard-DockerD000-200.01030—15:09
22J. QuinnR000020.19000—14:45
36N. OstlundC000000.161105010:34
81S. LaffertyC000000.180028010:20
29B. MalenstynL000030.19100—09:34
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
47J. Reimer(L)30273.9002.59-0.4158:08

Season series

CBJ leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).