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Winnipeg Jets at Edmonton Oilers

Final/OTTV SNW, TSN3·Rogers Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Winnipeg Jets beat the Edmonton Oilers 4-3 in overtime, Kyle Connor scoring at 1:13. The lead changed hands 2 times. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Kyle Connor's goal at 1:13 of overtime, which took the Jets' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals were close — WPG 3.1, EDM 3.1; shots on goal were WPG 20, EDM 24. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Oilers win a replay of these chances 50% of the time. Connor Hellebuyck stopped 21 of 24 (.875); Stuart Skinner stopped 13 of 16 (.813). Three stars: 1. Jeff Skinner (2 G), 2. Kyle Connor (1 G), 3. Josh Morrissey (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    EDM
    J. Skinner2 G
  2. ★★
    WPG
    K. Connor1 G
  3. ★★★
    WPG
    J. Morrissey1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
WPGWPG15171711420
EDMEDM141911001324

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. EDM
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.03win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    5:28
  2. WPG
    snapxG 0.14win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-1
    13:39

2nd period

  1. EDM
    C. McDavid (64), D. Nurse (20)
    snapxG 0.20win prob +17 ptsVideo
    1-2
    5:30
  2. WPG
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +18 ptsVideo
    2-2
    7:41

3rd period

  1. WPG
    backhandxG 0.22win prob +27 ptsVideo
    3-2
    3:56
  2. EDM
    D. Nurse (21), J. Walman (29)
    snapxG 0.37win prob +38 ptsVideo
    3-3
    14:26

Overtime

  1. WPG
    snapxG 0.10win prob +51 ptsVideo
    4-3
    1:13

Penalties

WPG 4 PIM·EDM 8 PIM

1st

  • 1:58WPGCole Perfetti · High stickingdrawn by Vasily Podkolzin2 min
  • 14:08EDMMax Jones · Roughingdrawn by Dylan DeMelo2 min

2nd

  • 5:30WPGserved by N. Niederreiter · Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
  • 19:44EDMMattias Ekholm · Roughingdrawn by Nino Niederreiter2 min

3rd

  • 0:42EDMDarnell Nurse · Roughingdrawn by Gabriel Vilardi2 min
  • 17:30EDMCorey Perry · Hookingdrawn by Nikolaj Ehlers2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
EDM goalWPG goalFinal: EDM 0%

Biggest swing: Kyle Connor, OT 1:13 — WPG 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
Z. Hyman · Goal · xG 0.37Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.25J. Skinner · Goal · xG 0.20J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.18V. Podkolzin · On goal · xG 0.17C. McDavid · Missed · xG 0.16C. Perry · Missed · xG 0.13A. Henrique · Missed · xG 0.10V. Podkolzin · Missed · xG 0.09V. Podkolzin · On goal · xG 0.09R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.09C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.09Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.08Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.08R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.08V. Podkolzin · On goal · xG 0.07C. Brown · Missed · xG 0.07V. Podkolzin · Missed · xG 0.07R. Nugent-Hopkins · Missed · xG 0.07A. Henrique · Missed · xG 0.06C. Perry · On goal · xG 0.06Z. Hyman · Missed · xG 0.05C. McDavid · Missed · xG 0.05R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.05V. Podkolzin · Missed · xG 0.04J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.04V. Arvidsson · Missed · xG 0.03J. Skinner · Goal · xG 0.03A. Henrique · Missed · xG 0.03C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.03T. Stecher · On goal · xG 0.02M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.02M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.02D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.02D. Nurse · Missed · xG 0.02B. Kulak · On goal · xG 0.01M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.01T. Stecher · Missed · xG 0.01E. Bouchard · On goal · xG 0.01
EDM3 G · 3.1 xG · 40 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

WPGvsEDM
3.14 G
All situations
3 G3.1
2.64 G
Even strength
3 G3.0
0.50 G
Power play
0 G0.0
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 79 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
WPG50%50%EDM

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.00 – 3.01

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

WPGvsEDM
20
Shots on goal
24
53%
Faceoffs
47%
0/4
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
8
23
Hits
16
19
Blocked shots
18
23
Giveaways
14
4
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Winnipeg Jets skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
44J. MorrisseyD112+220.15220—27:29
55M. ScheifeleC011000.100105923:54
81K. ConnorL101071.33000—23:43
54D. SambergD011-110.02140—23:38
2D. DeMeloD000+110.03220—22:44
13G. VilardiC000-100.0001010021:48
5L. SchennD000000.01850—17:28
27N. EhlersL011-110.13000—15:45
22M. AppletonC000+100.00010014:31
62N. NiederreiterR011+100.01200—14:12
17A. LowryC000010.200004313:39
7V. NamestnikovC000-110.050104513:31
6C. MillerD000-100.00200—13:15
91C. PerfettiC101-130.35002012:53
73B. TanevL101+110.33100—10:50
9A. IafalloL011+110.14300—10:46
24H. FleuryD011000.00110—10:40
36M. BarronC011+210.231108309:03
Winnipeg Jets goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
37C. Hellebuyck(W)24213.8753.06+0.0661:03

Season series

WPG leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).