Red Wings at Flames 3-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Detroit Red Wings

▸3

Calgary Flames

FinalTV FDSNDET, CBC·Scotiabank Saddledome

Recap

written from the game data

The Detroit Red Wings beat the Calgary Flames 3-1. The Red Wings scored first and never trailed. The Red Wings led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Simon Edvinsson's goal at 19:14 of the first period, which took the Red Wings' chances from 62% to 78%. Expected goals favored the Red Wings, 3.2 to 2.5; shots on goal were DET 25, CGY 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flames win a replay of these chances 63% of the time. Cam Talbot stopped 33 of 34 (.971), 1.5 goals saved above expected; Dustin Wolf stopped 22 of 24 (.917). Three stars: 1. Cam Talbot (33 saves, .971), 2. Nazem Kadri (1 G), 3. Dustin Wolf (22 saves, .917).

Three stars

★
C. Talbot33 saves, .971
★★
N. Kadri1 G
★★★
D. Wolf22 saves, .917

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DET	28	08	19	325
CGY	012	013	19	134

Scoring

4 goals

1st period

D. Larkin(23)
C. Fischer (6), D. Shine (1)
snapxG 0.16win prob +13 ptsVideo
1-0
8:27
S. Edvinsson(5)
J. Berggren (7), E. Soderblom (2)
wristxG 0.06win prob +16 ptsVideo
2-0
19:14

3rd period

N. Kadri(18)PPG
M. Weegar (20), M. Coronato (15)
wristxG 0.07win prob +13 ptsVideo
2-1
8:34
A. Copp(10)
A. DeBrincat (19), V. Tarasenko (15)
wristxG 0.91win prob +3 ptsVideo
3-1
19:06

Penalties

4 PIM·

0 PIM

3rd

7:06Marco Kasper · Hookingdrawn by Matt Coronato2 min
10:26Ben Chiarot · Trippingdrawn by Nazem Kadri2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: CGY

Biggest swing: Simon Edvinsson, 1st 19:14 — DET 62% → 78%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 2.5 xG · 55 att

←

attacks

attacks →

3 G · 3.2 xG · 35 att CGY

1 G · 2.5 xG · 55 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

3.23 G
All situations: 1 G2.5; 1.83 G
Even strength: 0 G2.0; 0.00 G
Power play: 1 G0.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 90 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

37%63%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.74 – 2.44

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

25
Shots on goal: 34; 52%
Faceoffs: 48%; 0/0
Power play: 1/2; 4
Penalty minutes: 0; 17
Hits: 24; 23
Blocked shots: 13; 15
Giveaways: 10; 6
Takeaways: 3

Box score

every player line

Detroit Red Wings skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
53M. SeiderD	0	0	0	+2	0	0.01	3	4	0	—	26:51
8B. ChiarotD	0	0	0	+2	2	0.04	2	1	2	—	23:05
77S. EdvinssonD	1	0	1	+1	1	0.06	0	2	0	—	20:36
20A. JohanssonD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	0	2	0	—	19:57
71D. LarkinC	1	0	1	+1	3	0.20	0	0	0	26	18:47
23L. RaymondL	0	0	0	0	2	0.03	0	2	0	—	18:21
92M. KasperC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	1	2	100	17:18
18A. CoppC	1	0	1	+1	3	1.59	0	1	0	59	16:04
3J. HollD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	1	0	—	15:47
93A. DeBrincatR	0	1	1	+1	2	0.06	0	1	0	—	15:39
27M. RasmussenC	0	0	0	+1	2	0.09	0	1	0	77	14:49
48J. BerggrenR	0	1	1	+1	1	0.48	2	0	0	—	14:15
11V. TarasenkoR	0	1	1	+1	3	0.27	0	0	0	—	14:09
85E. SoderblomL	0	1	1	+1	0	0.08	2	1	0	100	13:58
56E. GustafssonD	0	0	0	0	2	0.04	0	2	0	—	13:58
90J. VelenoC	0	0	0	0	1	0.05	1	1	0	60	12:44
36C. FischerR	0	1	1	+1	1	0.04	2	2	0	—	10:39
50D. ShineR	0	1	1	+1	2	0.18	1	1	0	—	09:35

Detroit Red Wings goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
39C. Talbot(W)	34	33	1	.971	2.50	+1.50	60:00

Season series

DET leads 2-0

Nov 271@2OTFinal
Feb 13@1this game

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Detroit Red Wings at Calgary Flames

1st period

3rd period

3rd

Box score