Blackhawks at Wild 3-4 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Chicago Blackhawks

Minnesota Wild

▸4

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Recap

written from the game data

The Minnesota Wild beat the Chicago Blackhawks 4-3. The Blackhawks scored first; the Wild answered. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brock Faber's goal at 2:43 of the third period, which took the Wild's chances from 52% to 77%. Expected goals favored the Wild, 3.2 to 2.3; shots on goal were CHI 31, MIN 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Wild win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Arvid Soderblom stopped 23 of 26 (.885); Filip Gustavsson stopped 28 of 31 (.903), 0.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Brock Faber (1 G), 2. Jared Spurgeon (1 G), 3. Marco Rossi (1 A).

Three stars

★
B. Faber1 G
★★
J. Spurgeon1 G
★★★
M. Rossi1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CHI	111	110	110	331
MIN	112	18	27	427

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

C. Bedard(9)
T. Hall (10)
snapxG 0.07win prob +13 ptsVideo
1-0
6:47
K. Kaprizov(23)
M. Rossi (16), M. Zuccarello (12)
wristxG 0.49win prob +14 ptsVideo
1-1
11:11

2nd period

N. Foligno(8)
F. Nazar (1), R. Donato (9)
wristxG 0.32win prob +18 ptsVideo
2-1
6:16
J. Spurgeon(4)
Y. Trenin (2), D. Shore (1)
backhandxG 0.02win prob +18 ptsVideo
2-2
7:05

3rd period

B. Faber(4)
J. Brodin (8), M. Khusnutdinov (3)
snapxG 0.03win prob +25 ptsVideo
2-3
2:43
M. Foligno(5)EN
Y. Trenin (3)
wristxG 0.49win prob +6 ptsVideo
2-4
18:36
J. Dickinson(7)
L. Reichel (7), T. Hall (11)
wristxG 0.25win prob +3 ptsVideo
3-4
19:27

Penalties

2 PIM·

0 PIM

3rd

5:02Connor Bedard · Interferencedrawn by Marco Rossi2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: MIN

100%

Biggest swing: Brock Faber, 3rd 2:43 — MIN 52% → 77%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

4 G · 3.2 xG · 43 att

←

attacks

attacks →

3 G · 2.3 xG · 38 att MIN

4 G · 3.2 xG · 43 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.33 G
All situations: 3 G3.2; 1.93 G
Even strength: 3 G2.6; 0.40 G
Power play: 0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 81 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

42%58%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.22 – 2.66

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

31
Shots on goal: 27; 50%
Faceoffs: 50%; 0/0
Power play: 0/1; 2
Penalty minutes: 0; 29
Hits: 26; 17
Blocked shots: 13; 11
Giveaways: 16; 4
Takeaways: 1

Box score

every player line

Chicago Blackhawks skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
72A. VlasicD	0	0	0	+2	5	0.07	0	1	0	—	24:52
98C. BedardC	1	0	1	-1	2	0.08	3	0	2	36	22:03
4S. JonesD	0	0	0	-3	1	0.01	1	2	0	—	21:46
5C. MurphyD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.02	4	3	0	—	20:55
59T. BertuzziL	0	0	0	-1	1	0.04	2	1	0	—	18:03
95I. MikheyevR	0	0	0	0	2	0.06	1	0	0	—	17:47
8R. DonatoC	0	1	1	+2	1	0.22	3	0	0	0	17:27
42N. AllanD	0	0	0	-2	1	0.02	2	1	0	—	17:23
78T. BrodieD	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	1	3	0	—	17:22
17N. FolignoL	1	0	1	0	2	0.42	3	1	0	38	16:35
91F. NazarC	0	1	1	0	2	0.37	0	1	0	67	16:30
71T. HallL	0	2	2	+2	3	0.15	0	0	0	50	16:23
16J. DickinsonC	1	0	1	0	1	0.25	5	0	0	82	16:06
86T. TeravainenC	0	0	0	-2	3	0.36	1	1	0	0	15:48
14K. KorchinskiD	0	0	0	0	2	0.02	0	2	0	—	15:44
73L. ReichelL	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	—	11:13
77P. MaroonL	0	0	0	-2	3	0.19	3	0	0	100	08:37
22J. AndersonR	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	1	0	—	05:12

Chicago Blackhawks goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
40A. Soderblom(L)	26	23	3	.885	2.70	-0.30	58:14

Season series

MIN leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Chicago Blackhawks at Minnesota Wild

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

3rd

Box score