Panthers at Rangers 3-0 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Florida Panthers

▸3

New York Rangers

FinalTV ESPN, ESPN+·Madison Square Garden

Recap

written from the game data

The Florida Panthers beat the New York Rangers 3-0. The Panthers scored first and never trailed. The Panthers led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Matthew Tkachuk's goal at 16:26 of the first period, which took the Panthers' chances from 46% to 61%. Expected goals were close — FLA 2.4, NYR 2.5; shots on goal were FLA 27, NYR 24. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Rangers win a replay of these chances 62% of the time. Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 24 of 24 (1.000), 2.5 goals saved above expected; Igor Shesterkin stopped 25 of 26 (.962). Three stars: 1. Sergei Bobrovsky (24 saves, 1.000), 2. Matthew Tkachuk (1 G, 1 A), 3. Carter Verhaeghe (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

★
S. Bobrovsky24 saves, 1.000
★★
M. Tkachuk1 G, 1 A
★★★
C. Verhaeghe1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
FLA	19	09	29	327
NYR	05	07	012	024

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

M. Tkachuk(5)
G. Forsling (6), C. Verhaeghe (6)
snapxG 0.04win prob +15 ptsVideo
1-0
16:26

3rd period

C. Verhaeghe(7)
Unassisted
xG 0.10win prob +9 ptsVideo
2-0
16:12
S. Bennett(3)EN
M. Tkachuk (11)
wristxG 0.52win prob +1 ptsVideo
3-0
18:41

Penalties

4 PIM·

6 PIM

1st

10:26Jacob Trouba · Hookingdrawn by Aleksander Barkov2 min

2nd

7:43Jack Roslovic · High stickingdrawn by Oliver Ekman-Larsson2 min
18:34Sam Bennett · Holding the stickdrawn by Adam Fox2 min

3rd

10:28Alexis Lafrenière · Hookingdrawn by Dmitry Kulikov2 min
13:11served by E. Rodrigues · Too many men on the ice2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: NYR

Biggest swing: Matthew Tkachuk, 1st 16:26 — FLA 46% → 61%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

0 G · 2.5 xG · 44 att

←

attacks

attacks →

3 G · 2.4 xG · 47 att NYR

0 G · 2.5 xG · 44 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.42 G
All situations: 0 G2.5; 1.62 G
Even strength: 0 G1.8; 0.30 G
Power play: 0 G0.7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 91 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

38%62%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.89 – 2.50

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

27
Shots on goal: 24; 52%
Faceoffs: 48%; 0/3
Power play: 0/2; 4
Penalty minutes: 6; 38
Hits: 27; 19
Blocked shots: 18; 2
Giveaways: 12; 2
Takeaways: 6

Box score

every player line

Florida Panthers skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
62B. MontourD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.06	1	1	0	—	22:41
42G. ForslingD	0	1	1	+2	2	0.05	1	0	0	—	22:32
5A. EkbladD	0	0	0	+2	1	0.02	1	2	0	—	21:59
13S. ReinhartC	0	0	0	0	4	0.18	0	3	0	60	21:37
16A. BarkovC	0	0	0	0	2	0.23	0	1	0	61	20:43
19M. TkachukL	1	1	2	+3	1	0.04	3	2	0	—	18:49
23C. VerhaegheC	1	1	2	+2	5	0.64	1	1	0	33	18:29
77N. MikkolaD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	3	0	0	—	18:26
10V. TarasenkoR	0	0	0	0	1	0.21	2	1	0	—	16:26
15A. LundellC	0	0	0	+3	0	0.10	3	0	0	43	16:22
7D. KulikovD	0	0	0	0	0	0.02	4	1	0	—	15:18
91O. Ekman-LarssonD	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	4	1	0	—	13:43
27E. LuostarinenC	0	0	0	0	1	0.05	1	1	0	57	13:20
9S. BennettC	1	0	1	+1	5	0.64	3	1	2	0	13:17
17E. RodriguesC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4	0	0	40	12:07
82K. StenlundC	0	0	0	0	1	0.08	0	2	0	50	12:06
21N. CousinsC	0	0	0	0	2	0.05	0	1	0	0	10:14
94R. LombergL	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	7	1	0	—	07:51

Florida Panthers goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
72S. Bobrovsky(W)	24	24	0	1.000	2.55	+2.55	60:00

Series

FLA leads 4-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Florida Panthers at New York Rangers

1st period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score