Capitals at Flyers 2-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Washington Capitals

▸2

Philadelphia Flyers

FinalTV NBCSP, MNMT·Wells Fargo Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Washington Capitals beat the Philadelphia Flyers 2-1. The Capitals scored first and never trailed. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was T.J. Oshie's goal at 17:00 of the third period, which took the Capitals' chances from 48% to 92%. Expected goals were close — WSH 1.6, PHI 1.6; shots on goal were WSH 18, PHI 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flyers win a replay of these chances 62% of the time. Charlie Lindgren stopped 27 of 28 (.964), 0.6 goals saved above expected; Samuel Ersson stopped 16 of 17 (.941). Three stars: 1. T.J. Oshie (1 G, 1 A), 2. Erik Johnson (1 G), 3. Alex Ovechkin (1 G).

Three stars

★
T. Oshie1 G, 1 A
★★
E. Johnson1 G
★★★
A. Ovechkin1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WSH	17	05	16	218
PHI	07	18	013	128

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

A. Ovechkin(31)
D. McIlrath (1), T. Oshie (13)
tip-inxG 0.08win prob +15 ptsVideo
1-0
18:08

2nd period

E. Johnson(5)
E. Zamula (16), S. Couturier (27)
tip-inxG 0.06win prob +20 ptsVideo
1-1
12:29

3rd period

T. Oshie(12)EN
N. Dowd (10)
wristxG 0.51win prob +44 ptsVideo
2-1
17:00

Penalties

2 PIM·

0 PIM

1st

9:03Tom Wilson · Trippingdrawn by Tyson Foerster2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: PHI

Biggest swing: T.J. Oshie, 3rd 17:00 — WSH 48% → 92%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 1.6 xG · 43 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 1.6 xG · 29 att PHI

1 G · 1.6 xG · 43 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

1.61 G
All situations: 1 G1.6; 0.81 G
Even strength: 1 G1.1; 0.00 G
Power play: 0 G0.4; 0.20 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 72 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

38%62%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.05 – 1.56

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

18
Shots on goal: 28; 52%
Faceoffs: 48%; 0/0
Power play: 0/1; 2
Penalty minutes: 0; 27
Hits: 40; 32
Blocked shots: 26; 8
Giveaways: 7; 5
Takeaways: 9

Box score

every player line

Washington Capitals skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
74J. CarlsonD	0	0	0	+1	4	0.12	1	9	0	—	29:20
42M. FehérváryD	0	0	0	+2	1	0.01	2	5	0	—	27:02
27A. AlexeyevD	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	2	7	0	—	21:01
57T. van RiemsdykD	0	0	0	-1	1	0.00	1	3	0	—	20:03
17D. StromeC	0	0	0	0	0	0.02	0	2	0	72	20:00
21A. ProtasL	0	0	0	0	3	0.44	1	0	0	—	19:16
43T. WilsonR	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	1	0	2	—	18:46
77T. OshieR	1	1	2	+2	2	0.65	1	1	0	—	18:10
47B. MalenstynL	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	4	1	0	—	16:49
24C. McMichaelL	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	0	0	0	44	16:12
26N. DowdC	0	1	1	+1	1	0.02	2	0	0	47	15:16
8A. OvechkinL	1	0	1	+1	1	0.19	2	0	0	—	14:55
96N. Aube-KubelR	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	0	0	—	12:39
52D. McIlrathD	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	3	1	0	—	11:48
2V. IorioD	0	0	0	0	2	0.04	2	1	0	—	10:45
15S. MilanoL	0	0	0	-1	1	0.01	0	1	0	—	09:15
29H. LapierreC	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	1	0	20	08:37
67M. PaciorettyL	0	0	0	-1	1	0.03	1	0	0	—	08:06

Washington Capitals goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
79C. Lindgren(W)	28	27	1	.964	1.57	+0.57	60:00

Season series

WSH leads 2-1

Dec 143@4SOFinal
Mar 12@5Final
Apr 162@1this game

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Washington Capitals at Philadelphia Flyers

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

1st

Box score