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Sabres at Panthers
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Florida Panthers

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
2
Florida Panthers
▸3
Final/OTTV BSSUNX, MSG-B·Amerant Bank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Florida Panthers beat the Buffalo Sabres 3-2 in overtime, Sam Reinhart scoring at 3:58. The lead changed hands 2 times. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Sam Reinhart's goal at 3:58 of overtime, which took the Panthers' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Panthers, 3.8 to 1.7; shots on goal were BUF 29, FLA 42. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Panthers win a replay of these chances 83% of the time. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 39 of 42 (.929), 0.8 goals saved above expected; Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 27 of 29 (.931). Three stars: 1. Sam Reinhart (1 G), 2. Sergei Bobrovsky (27 saves, .931), 3. Anton Lundell (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    FLA
    S. Reinhart1 G
  2. ★★
    FLA
    S. Bobrovsky27 saves, .931
  3. ★★★
    FLA
    A. Lundell1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
BUFBUF280140601229
FLAFLA21301101612342

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    T. Jost(3)
    R. Dahlin (39), H. Jokiharju (17)
    tip-inxG 0.05win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-0
    2:59
  2. FLA
    A. Lundell(13)
    M. Tkachuk (60), N. Cousins (8)
    backhandxG 0.04win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-1
    5:02
  3. FLA
    K. Stenlund(11)SHG
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.23win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-2
    8:11
  4. BUF
    J. Quinn(9)PPG
    B. Byram (17), O. Power (27)
    wristxG 0.27win prob +11 ptsVideo
    2-2
    9:48

Overtime

  1. FLA
    S. Reinhart(55)
    A. Barkov (55)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +49 ptsVideo
    2-3
    3:58

Penalties

BUF 9 PIM·FLA 4 PIM

1st

  • 7:57FLANick Cousins · Trippingdrawn by Rasmus Dahlin2 min
  • 17:09BUFPeyton Krebs · Trippingdrawn by Nick Cousins2 min

2nd

  • 16:54FLANiko Mikkola · Interferencedrawn by Zach Benson2 min

3rd

  • 6:04BUFConnor Clifton · Match penaltydrawn by Nick Cousins5 min
  • 19:25BUFAlex Tuch · High stickingdrawn by Sam Bennett2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
FLA goalBUF goalFinal: FLA 100%

Biggest swing: Sam Reinhart, OT 3:58 — FLA 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
K. Stenlund · On goal · xG 0.32K. Stenlund · Goal · xG 0.23M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.20M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.17S. Reinhart · Goal · xG 0.16S. Bennett · Missed · xG 0.16A. Lundell · Missed · xG 0.15V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.13S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.11S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.11B. Montour · Missed · xG 0.10M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.10M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.09V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.09E. Rodrigues · Missed · xG 0.08K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.08N. Cousins · On goal · xG 0.08U. Balinskis · On goal · xG 0.08S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.07S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.07N. Cousins · On goal · xG 0.07N. Cousins · On goal · xG 0.06S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.06S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.06M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.06E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.06E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.06V. Tarasenko · Missed · xG 0.05B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.05A. Lundell · On goal · xG 0.05S. Bennett · Missed · xG 0.05S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.05M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.04A. Lundell · Goal · xG 0.04M. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.04V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.04U. Balinskis · Missed · xG 0.03E. Rodrigues · Missed · xG 0.03O. Ekman-Larsson · On goal · xG 0.03U. Balinskis · On goal · xG 0.02M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.02D. Kulikov · On goal · xG 0.02N. Mikkola · On goal · xG 0.02D. Kulikov · Missed · xG 0.02A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.02G. Forsling · Missed · xG 0.01A. Lundell · Missed · xG 0.01E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.01G. Forsling · On goal · xG 0.01S. Lorentz · Missed · xG 0.01A. Lundell · On goal · xG 0.01M. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.01N. Mikkola · Missed · xG 0.01E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.01N. Mikkola · On goal · xG 0.01S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.01D. Kulikov · Missed · xG 0.01B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.00G. Forsling · On goal · xG 0.00V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.00
FLA3 G · 3.8 xG · 60 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsFLA
1.72 G
All situations
3 G3.8
1.11 G
Even strength
2 G2.6
0.71 G
Power play
0 G0.9
0.00 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 92 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF17%83%FLA

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.68 – 3.76

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsFLA
29
Shots on goal
42
36%
Faceoffs
64%
1/2
Power play
0/3
19
Penalty minutes
4
17
Hits
26
25
Blocked shots
6
13
Giveaways
13
10
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
25O. PowerD011010.04150—27:14
10H. JokiharjuD011+110.03230—23:50
26R. DahlinD011-130.26450—23:38
89A. TuchR000-150.26222—22:39
4B. ByramD011010.03140—22:22
77J. PeterkaR000-220.12000—21:29
72T. ThompsonC000-130.150004120:19
24D. CozensC000-200.000102517:35
12J. GreenwayL000010.0022010017:17
22J. QuinnR101-170.52020—15:37
78J. BrysonD000-100.00000—14:24
9Z. BensonL000-200.00000—13:25
75C. CliftonD000-110.031015—13:15
53J. SkinnerL000+120.21200—12:13
28Z. GirgensonsC000000.000002910:50
19P. KrebsC000010.021024410:49
13L. RousekR000+100.00010—09:14
17T. JostC101+110.051002908:55
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1U. Luukkonen(O)42393.9293.76+0.7663:36

Season series

FLA leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).