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Lightning at Maple Leafs
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸4
Toronto Maple Leafs
1
FinalTV BSSUN, SN·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 4-1. The Lightning scored first and never trailed. The Lightning led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Steven Stamkos's goal at 8:47 of the second period, which took the Lightning's chances from 65% to 83%. Expected goals were close — TBL 2.7, TOR 2.6; shots on goal were TBL 25, TOR 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 52% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 28 of 29 (.966), 1.6 goals saved above expected; Joseph Woll stopped 21 of 25 (.840), 1.3 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Andrei Vasilevskiy (28 saves, .966), 2. Nikita Kucherov (3 A), 3. Brandon Hagel (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    A. Vasilevskiy28 saves, .966
  2. ★★
    TBL
    N. Kucherov3 A
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    B. Hagel2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL14210111425
TORTOR11101404129

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    V. Hedman(13)
    N. Kucherov (86), B. Hagel (45)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-0
    10:03
  2. TOR
    A. Matthews(63)PPG
    M. Rielly (45), J. Tavares (35)
    slapxG 0.06win prob +11 ptsVideo
    1-1
    19:00

2nd period

  1. TBL
    B. Point(43)
    N. Kucherov (87), A. Duclair (16)
    backhandxG 0.28win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-1
    2:54
  2. TBL
    S. Stamkos(32)
    B. Hagel (46), H. Fleury (4)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +17 ptsVideo
    3-1
    8:47

3rd period

  1. TBL
    N. Paul(20)
    D. Raddysh (24), N. Kucherov (88)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +2 ptsVideo
    4-1
    14:19

Penalties

TBL 15 PIM·TOR 13 PIM

1st

  • 4:23TBLBrandon Hagel · Trippingdrawn by William Nylander2 min
  • 11:26TORTJ Brodie · Slashingdrawn by Nick Paul2 min
  • 16:25TORBobby McMann · Trippingdrawn by Haydn Fleury2 min
  • 18:57TBLLuke Glendening · Interferencedrawn by Morgan Rielly2 min

2nd

  • 0:23TBLBrandon Hagel · Trippingdrawn by Auston Matthews2 min
  • 11:02TBLLuke Glendening · Trippingdrawn by Ryan Reaves2 min
  • 18:16TBLAnthony Duclair · Roughingdrawn by Simon Benoit2 min
  • 18:16TORSimon Benoit · Slashingdrawn by Anthony Duclair2 min

3rd

  • 3:10TBLTanner Jeannot · Fightingdrawn by Ryan Reaves5 min
  • 3:10TORRyan Reaves · Fightingdrawn by Tanner Jeannot5 min
  • 5:46TORConor Timmins · Holdingdrawn by Nick Paul2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalTBL goalFinal: TOR 0%

Biggest swing: Steven Stamkos, 2nd 8:47 — TBL 65% → 83%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Reaves · On goal · xG 0.30B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.18J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.17T. Bertuzzi · Missed · xG 0.16A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.15T. Bertuzzi · On goal · xG 0.15W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.14J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.13J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.11W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.09P. Holmberg · Missed · xG 0.08A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.08W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.08W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.07A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.07C. Dewar · Missed · xG 0.06R. Reaves · Missed · xG 0.06A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.06C. Timmins · Missed · xG 0.04M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.04M. Domi · On goal · xG 0.04W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.04M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.03W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.03R. Reaves · Missed · xG 0.03D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.03N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.02M. Domi · On goal · xG 0.02P. Holmberg · On goal · xG 0.02A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.02C. Timmins · On goal · xG 0.02B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.02D. Kampf · Missed · xG 0.01J. McCabe · Missed · xG 0.01M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.01A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.01C. Dewar · On goal · xG 0.01M. Domi · Missed · xG 0.01C. Dewar · Missed · xG 0.01A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.01N. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.01M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.01R. Reaves · On goal · xG 0.01C. Timmins · Missed · xG 0.00C. Timmins · Missed · xG 0.00W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.00W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.00
TOR1 G · 2.6 xG · 47 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsTOR
2.74 G
All situations
1 G2.6
2.04 G
Even strength
0 G1.8
0.70 G
Power play
1 G0.8
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 85 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL52%48%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.74 – 2.61

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsTOR
25
Shots on goal
29
45%
Faceoffs
55%
0/3
Power play
1/4
15
Penalty minutes
13
38
Hits
35
18
Blocked shots
13
15
Giveaways
12
2
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD101+220.07020—24:39
81E. CernakD000+100.00320—23:42
71A. CirelliC000+200.000104720:23
7H. FleuryD011+130.18050—19:06
38B. HagelL022+210.12114—18:31
86N. KucherovR033+220.37110—17:24
20N. PaulL101+140.135005516:57
43D. RaddyshD011+220.18310—16:49
91S. StamkosC101+220.362202516:38
21B. PointC101+141.051105315:50
24M. DumbaD000+110.03310—15:30
78E. LillebergD000+100.00310—14:35
11L. GlendeningC000000.002045013:33
64T. MotteC000020.03100013:26
23M. EyssimontC000+100.01500013:19
10A. DuclairL011+100.00202—12:42
41M. ChaffeeR000+100.08400—12:01
84T. JeannotL000020.13205—07:14
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(W)29281.9662.63+1.6359:38

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).